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MATX: Share Repurchases Will Drive Attractive Future Upside Potential

Modernized Fleet Will Capture Asia-Pacific Trade Despite Uncertainties

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MATX
AnalystHighTarget
Not Invested
Published 04 May 2025

Update shared on 13 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 13%
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AnalystHighTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-8.9%
7D
4.4%

Narrative Update on Matson

Analysts have raised their price target on Matson from 160 dollars to 180 dollars per share, reflecting higher expected valuation multiples despite more conservative assumptions on revenue growth and profit margins.

What's in the News

  • Completed a major share repurchase program, buying back 615,000 shares in the latest tranche and a total of about 35% of shares outstanding. This signals continued capital return to shareholders (Key Developments).
  • Issued new guidance indicating fourth quarter 2025 consolidated operating income is expected to be about 30% lower than the 147.5 million dollars reported in the prior year quarter (Key Developments).
  • Projected full year 2025 interest income of approximately 32 million dollars, highlighting a meaningful contribution from balance sheet cash and investments (Key Developments).
  • Announced a product agreement with WhaleSpotter Corp. to deploy WHOI developed WhaleSpotter whale detection systems on Matson vessels serving Hawaii and Alaska, positioning the company as an early adopter of advanced marine protection technology (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: Increased from 160 dollars to 180 dollars per share, reflecting a modestly higher intrinsic valuation.
  • Discount Rate: Risen slightly from about 7.31 percent to about 7.44 percent, indicating a marginally higher required return.
  • Revenue Growth: Forecast has fallen significantly from approximately negative 0.15 percent to approximately negative 0.68 percent, implying a more cautious view on top line trends.
  • Net Profit Margin: Reduced from about 9.45 percent to about 7.84 percent, signaling expectations for lower profitability.
  • Future P/E: Expanded from roughly 16.4 times to about 22.3 times, indicating a higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.

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