Update shared on25 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.68%Analysts have lowered Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings’ price target due to persistent weak truckload volumes, a lack of near-term pricing catalysts, and ongoing macroeconomic and trade policy uncertainties, resulting in a revised consensus target of $52.21.
Analyst Commentary
- Sub-seasonal truckload volumes in Q3-to-date and reduced 2025/2026 EPS estimates due to weaker fundamentals.
- Lack of a clear demand catalyst for truckload rate increases, with expectations for a delayed market pricing inflection and 10% downside risk to consensus estimates.
- Updates to transportation and logistics estimates reflecting ongoing uncertainty from tariffs and trade policy and fluctuating spot truckload rates.
- Stagnant industrial demand and a potential slowdown in U.S. imports projected to make upcoming quarters more challenging for transportation companies.
- Occasional small upward revisions to EPS and target prices following quarterly results, but optimism generally tempered by broader macro headwinds.
What's in the News
- The U.S. government has paused all issuance of worker visas for commercial truck drivers, citing safety and economic concerns, impacting companies such as Knight-Swift (PERIODICAL: Secretary of State Marco Rubio via X, 2025-08-22).
- The visa halt may reduce the labor supply of foreign commercial drivers, potentially increasing operating costs for Knight-Swift and other industry peers (PERIODICAL).
- From April 1, 2025 to June 30, 2025, Knight-Swift executed no share repurchases, with zero shares bought back during this period (KEY DEVELOPMENTS, 2025-07-30).
- Cumulatively, Knight-Swift has repurchased 3,180,000 shares, amounting to 1.94% of shares outstanding for $149.96 million under its ongoing buyback program announced in April 2022 (KEY DEVELOPMENTS, 2025-07-30).
- The completion of these buybacks signals an ongoing focus on shareholder returns, though the pause in new buybacks last quarter suggests a more cautious capital allocation stance (KEY DEVELOPMENTS).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $53.11 to $52.21.
- The Future P/E for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings has fallen from 21.32x to 19.58x.
- The Net Profit Margin for Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings has risen from 6.04% to 6.47%.
Disclaimer
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