Update shared on18 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 2.72%Upward revisions to United Airlines’ long-term earnings forecasts, driven by industry consolidation and robust operational performance, have prompted analysts to raise the stock’s fair value target from $108.65 to $111.60.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts raised long-term earnings estimates for United Airlines above consensus for 2026 and 2027, reflecting stronger-than-expected industry profitability among major carriers.
- Industry consolidation is benefiting leading airlines like United, with profits increasingly concentrated among a few strong operators.
- United's management maintains a conservative outlook, historically under-promising and over-delivering, giving confidence in forward earnings projections.
- Recent quarterly results prompted upward revisions to EPS forecasts for both 2025 and 2026 due to better-than-expected operational performance.
- The path to profitability remains difficult for smaller or impaired airlines, further reinforcing the positive outlook for major players like United.
What's in the News
- United Airlines plans to resume flights to Tel Aviv from Chicago and Washington D.C. in November 2025, marking a return to these routes for the first time since 2023; United remains the largest U.S. operator to Tel Aviv and is the sole airline linking Tel Aviv to both Chicago and Washington D.C. (Key Developments)
- The airline expanded its winter schedule, adding flights to 15 cities such as Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, and Las Vegas, along with new routes to Central America and additional capacity on key domestic routes; tickets for these new services go on sale immediately. (Key Developments)
- United and JetBlue completed DOT review for their Blue Sky partnership, enabling mutual loyalty program benefits, expanded code-sharing, access for United to JFK slots, and integration of United’s ancillary booking onto JetBlue’s Paisly technology platform, with phased rollout beginning fall 2025. (Key Developments)
- United repurchased 3.55 million shares for $263.9 million between April and July 2025, completing its $700 million buyback program, representing 3.1% of outstanding shares repurchased since October 2024. (Key Developments)
- On August 7, 2025, United temporarily paused departures due to a systemwide Unimatic technology issue but quickly resolved the problem and resumed flights, warning of residual delays as operations normalized. (Wall Street Journal/Periodicals)
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for United Airlines Holdings
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $108.65 to $111.60.
- The Future P/E for United Airlines Holdings remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 10.75x to 10.95x.
- The Net Profit Margin for United Airlines Holdings remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 6.21% to 6.27%.
Disclaimer
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