Update shared on 29 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.90%Analysts have modestly reduced their fair value estimate for Saia by approximately $3. They cite ongoing margin pressures and mixed shipment trends that continue to weigh on forecasts, despite recent cost efficiency improvements.
Analyst Commentary
Recent updates from industry analysts provide a nuanced perspective on Saia’s outlook, reflecting both optimism about the company’s operational execution and caution regarding ongoing industry and company-specific headwinds. Below is a summary of key takeaways from the latest research notes.
Bullish Takeaways- Some analysts raised their price targets for Saia, citing effective cost controls and improved margin performance in recent quarters, even as industry headwinds persisted.
- Surprising strength in adjusted EPS and robust revenue growth for Q3 demonstrated management’s ability to drive efficiency gains despite challenging conditions.
- Encouraging commentary around long-term margin expansion potential, with at least one analyst highlighting that future expansion is not solely dependent on volume recovery.
- Buy ratings were maintained by several firms. This reflects confidence in Saia’s core LTL network optimization and execution strategy over the medium term.
- Bearish analysts continue to trim price targets and maintain neutral or hold ratings given persistent mixed shipment trends and margin pressures.
- Recent reports highlighted weakening October freight volumes and a cautious near-term demand outlook. These trends may contribute to margin softness in the coming quarters.
- Slowing industry-wide freight demand and unfavorable tonnage growth are expected to pressure results into the first half of the next fiscal year.
- Analysts remain watchful of market mix-related challenges, particularly as Saia expands nationally without full density in all geographic regions. This could impact weight per shipment and overall network profitability.
What's in the News
- Saia reported a 1.2% decline in LTL shipments per workday for July 2025. LTL tonnage per workday increased by 0.9%, and weight per shipment rose 2.1% year-over-year (Key Developments).
- For August 2025, Saia experienced a 2.2% year-over-year decline in both LTL shipments per workday and LTL tonnage per workday. Average weight per shipment increased by 0.1% (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: Decreased modestly from $323.37 to $320.45, reflecting a cautious adjustment to ongoing forecasts.
- Discount Rate: Slightly reduced, now at 7.95%.
- Revenue Growth: Projected to rise marginally, now at 6.52%.
- Net Profit Margin: Marginally reduced, now at 12.08%.
- Future P/E: Slightly lowered from 22.41x to 22.21x, indicating a more cautious outlook for forward earnings multiples.
Disclaimer
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