LSTR: Capacity Stabilization Will Meet Prolonged Truckload Weakness And Slower Earnings Recovery

Analysts have nudged their blended price target for Landstar System modestly higher to approximately $134 from about $131, reflecting slightly better long term growth and valuation assumptions, even as Street research highlights ongoing truckload headwinds and modest estimate trims across the transports group.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research presents a mixed backdrop for Landstar System, with price targets drifting lower but ratings largely unchanged, underscoring a balanced risk reward profile in the current freight cycle.

While there is not enough divergence in the views to clearly separate camps, analysts are highlighting a blend of supportive and challenging factors that frame expectations for the shares.

Key Takeaways

• Bullish analysts point to the quarter over quarter increase in BCO truck count after three years of declines as an early sign of network stabilization, which could support future volume growth and operating leverage when demand improves.
• Despite price target cuts, some analysts maintain positive or constructive ratings, suggesting confidence that Landstar's asset light model and disciplined capital allocation can sustain returns above peers through the cycle.
• Bearish analysts emphasize that truckload cyclical conditions still imply downside risk to consensus estimates, with ongoing pressure on volumes and pricing weighing on near term earnings power.
• Across the transports group, weak industrial activity and capacity oversupply are prompting trimmed forecasts, reinforcing the view that Landstar may face a slower earnings recovery than previously anticipated.
• Multiple downward estimate revisions for the upcoming quarters highlight execution risk, as management must navigate stagnant TL and intermodal pricing while preserving margins and maintaining an attractive valuation relative to growth prospects.

What's in the News

• Board declares a special one time cash dividend of $2.00 per share, payable January 21, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 6, 2026, reflecting a continued focus on shareholder returns (company announcement)
• Company completes long running share repurchase program launched in 2011, retiring a total of 14.76 million shares, or roughly 36% of shares outstanding, for $1.47 billion in aggregate (company announcement)
• Latest buyback tranche from June 29 to September 27, 2025 totals 308,709 shares, or 0.89% of shares, for $40.21 million (company announcement)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value has risen slightly, increasing from about $131 to roughly $134 per share, implying modestly higher long term intrinsic value assumptions.
• Discount Rate has edged down marginally, moving from approximately 7.92% to about 7.90%, reflecting a slightly lower perceived cost of capital or risk profile.
• Revenue Growth has increased slightly, with long term growth expectations moving from around 6.72% to roughly 6.78%, signaling a modestly more constructive demand outlook.
• Net Profit Margin has slipped very slightly, easing from roughly 4.70% to about 4.68%, indicating only a minor adjustment to long run profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E has risen modestly, increasing from about 18.6x to roughly 19.1x, suggesting a slightly higher valuation multiple on anticipated earnings.