Update shared on28 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 7.79%Analysts have raised their price target for Daqo New Energy, citing anticipated earnings growth and improved long-term competitiveness from favorable market restructuring in China's polysilicon sector, resulting in a new consensus fair value of $23.65.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts see significant upside due to anticipated monthly production quotas and imminent market restructuring in China's polysilicon sector, expected to benefit larger players like Daqo through forced closures of smaller competitors.
- Despite a weak Q2 and earnings miss, analysts argue that the underperformance was intentional, as management limited sales during unfavorable spot pricing periods to preserve margins.
- Forward guidance from Daqo management implies "explosive earnings growth" anticipated in the second half of the year, shifting focus away from near-term policy concerns and weak quarter results.
- Bearish concerns around China's anti-involution policy are being downplayed, with analysts emphasizing that broader market structure changes and earnings outlook are more important drivers for the stock.
- Increased price targets and upgrades to Buy reflect renewed optimism in Daqo’s long-term profitability and competitive position following pending policy changes in China’s solar supply chain.
What's in the News
- Board authorized a share buyback plan.
- Announced a $100 million share repurchase program, funded primarily from existing cash and valid through December 31, 2026.
- Provided Q3 2025 production guidance of 27,000–30,000 MT polysilicon; full-year 2025 guidance of 110,000–140,000 MT, including impact from annual maintenance.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Daqo New Energy
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $21.94 to $23.65.
- The Future P/E for Daqo New Energy has significantly fallen from 7.20x to 1.45x.
- The Net Profit Margin for Daqo New Energy remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 9.26% to 9.36%.
Disclaimer
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