Update shared on30 Aug 2025
Fair value Decreased 5.20%Marvell Technology’s consensus price target has been revised down to $86.75, as weaker near-term guidance and softness in custom silicon and data center revenues overshadow optimism around AI-driven growth and long-term EPS potential.
Analyst Commentary
- Weaker near-term guidance and declining custom silicon and data center revenues have driven down sentiment, with particular disappointment around the outlook for ASICs despite strengthening Trainium builds.
- Bullish analysts highlight ongoing progress in Marvell’s 18 XPU and XPU Attach product lines and continued socket wins, particularly in custom compute, though clarity on next-generation XPU partnerships remains lacking.
- Some analysts believe competitive concerns in Marvell’s optics and custom XPU markets are overblown, with the company maintaining a strong position as it aims for increased market share by 2028.
- The company is seen as well-positioned to benefit from structural growth in artificial intelligence, with several bullish analysts viewing the AI cycle as a long-term tailwind despite its transitional phase.
- Long-term earnings potential has been favorably revised upward by bullish analysts, who estimate significant EPS upside by 2028 as Marvell’s custom compute and AI-driven businesses scale.
What's in the News
- The Trump administration is considering reallocating at least $2B from CHIPS Act semiconductor funding to support critical minerals projects, potentially reducing resources for chipmakers like Marvell (Reuters, 2025-08-21).
- U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is exploring the government taking non-voting equity stakes in semiconductor firms, including Marvell, in exchange for CHIPS Act grants (Reuters, 2025-08-20).
- Marvell was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at KGI Securities, with analyst Leon Chen assigning a $75 price target (2025-08-21).
- President Trump has paused tech export restrictions on China to facilitate trade negotiations, impacting Marvell and other U.S. chipmakers with significant exposure to Chinese markets (FT, 2025-07-29).
- The Trump administration is expected to announce the results of a national security investigation into semiconductor imports within two weeks, which could affect companies like Marvell (Reuters, 2025-07-27).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Marvell Technology
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from $90.82 to $86.75.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Marvell Technology has significantly fallen from 22.1% per annum to 18.8% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Marvell Technology has fallen from 41.88x to 39.00x.
Disclaimer
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