US Manufacturing Expansion Will Secure Future Solar Leadership

Upward revisions in First Solar’s price target reflect bullish analyst sentiment driven by supportive U.S. policy developments, legislative incentives (notably 45X tax credits), and strong Q2 results, offsetting some lingering risks and resulting in a modest consensus price target increase from $215.56 to $218.66.

Analyst Commentary

• Bullish analysts cite "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) and related legislative developments—especially retention and extension of 45X tax credits and advanced manufacturing incentives—as major demand and margin tailwinds for First Solar.
• Several analysts highlight First Solar’s positive Q2 results, with revenue and EPS exceeding expectations, further supporting upward price target revisions and optimistic outlooks.
• New or clarified U.S. policy and trade decisions, such as Treasury safe harbor guidance, strengthened enforcement of anti-dumping/countervailing duties and Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, and potential AD/CVD/Section 232 outcomes, are expected to benefit First Solar’s domestic manufacturing moat and competitiveness.
• The exemption of certain solar projects from new excise taxes and rolling back of restrictive requirements in Senate versions of recent tax bills drive near-term demand pull-forward, though one mid-year provision removing excise tax protection is viewed as a risk specific to First Solar.
• Some bearish analysts note residual risks from stacking provision restrictions under 45X tax credits, which could cap the amount of credits First Solar qualifies for, and potential downside related to accelerated phase-outs and FEOC definitions, though overall legislative momentum remains highly supportive.

What's in the News

• The EPA, under the Trump administration, plans to rescind $7 billion in grants under the Solar for All program, affecting 60 recipients across 49 states (The Washington Post).
• First Solar expanded its supply agreement with 5N Plus Inc., significantly increasing volumes of cadmium telluride (CdTe) and introducing cadmium selenide (CdSe) supply starting in 2026 to support scaling U.S. manufacturing capacity (Key Developments).
• Under the new 5N Plus agreement, First Solar aims to reach 14GW of U.S. manufacturing capacity by 2026, with five factories operational or in development in Ohio and Alabama (Key Developments).
• First Solar updated its 2025 financial guidance, raising net sales expectations to $4.9–$5.7 billion and EPS to $13.50–$16.50 (Key Developments).
• UbiQD entered an exclusive, multi-year supply deal with First Solar to incorporate fluorescent quantum dot technology into thin-film panels, expected to enhance performance and support expansion for data center and AI-driven power demand (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Summary of Valuation Changes for First Solar

• The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $215.56 to $218.66.
• The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for First Solar has risen slightly from 17.2% per annum to 18.0% per annum.
• The Net Profit Margin for First Solar has fallen slightly from 47.51% to 46.44%.