FSLR: U.S. Expansion And Policy Will Shape Upside Amid Changing Industry Support

First Solar's analyst price target has risen significantly, increasing from approximately $259 to about $270 per share. Analysts point to durable pricing advantage, supportive government policy, and robust supply chain initiatives as key drivers behind the upgrade.

Analyst Commentary

Following First Solar's Q3 report and recent strategic updates, Wall Street analysts have weighed in with a range of price target increases and newly initiated coverage. Their commentary provides insight into both the strengths and potential risks facing the company in the near to medium term.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight upward price target revisions, with several noting increased expectations for 2026 and beyond. Stricter policy and supply chain alignment are cited as supporting margin upside and demand durability.
• The company's position as a leading U.S.-based solar manufacturer with strong domestic supply chain control is seen as structurally advantageous amid evolving policy, tariff actions, and incentives.
• Expansions in module finishing capacity within the U.S. are viewed as risk mitigators, helping reduce exposure to tariffs and adverse foreign entity regulations.
• Solid bookings and the announcement of additional manufacturing initiatives are regarded as near-term catalysts expected to drive valuation higher and support long-term growth narratives.

Bearish Takeaways

• Some cautious analysts point to near-term headwinds from persistent higher interest rates, ongoing tariff uncertainty, and potential disruptions in the glass supply chain. These factors have modestly lowered guidance for 2025.
• Uncertainty remains regarding margin recovery and the impact of retroactive duties or contract terminations. Clarity is still needed to fully resolve long-term profitability risks.
• Despite broad support, a subset of analysts advise that the stock’s recent rally may limit near-term upside if policy tailwinds stall or if market preferences shift unexpectedly.
• Potential risks related to increased tariffs on imported components from certain regions, specifically India, are also noted as factors that could weigh on First Solar’s growth trajectory if not adequately addressed.

What's in the News

• The White House is considering canceling an additional $12 billion in clean energy funding. This move could impact publicly traded solar companies, including First Solar (Semafor).
• First Solar announced the establishment of a new $330 million facility in Gaffney, South Carolina. The facility is aimed at increasing capacity for onshore production of Series 6Plus modules and is expected to create over 600 new jobs, boosting the U.S. manufacturing footprint (Key Developments).
• The company issued updated 2025 guidance and narrowed its range for net sales and earnings per share, reflecting ongoing market and policy uncertainties (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly. It increased from $259.11 to $269.64 per share.
• Discount Rate has inched higher, moving from 10.18% to 10.63%.
• Revenue Growth projection has improved. It rose from 11.92% to 12.48%.
• Net Profit Margin forecast has increased modestly, going from 46.28% to 47.50%.
• Future P/E has edged up from 11.42x to 11.55x, reflecting adjusted valuation expectations.