CAMT: Advanced Packaging And HBM Demand Will Drive Strong Future Upside

Analysts modestly lift our fair value estimate for Camtek from $120 to approximately $143 per share, as they balance slightly softer near term growth expectations with stronger long term profitability from advanced packaging and HBM4 driven demand.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a broadly constructive view on Camtek, with most bullish analysts highlighting resilient execution, solid near term performance, and a strengthening multi year growth runway tied to advanced packaging and HBM adoption.

While there have been modest downward revisions to some long dated estimates, the prevailing sentiment remains that current expectations for 2026 and beyond are conservative relative to the scale of anticipated AI infrastructure and HBM4 demand, supporting higher valuation multiples even on unchanged forecasts.

Several bullish analysts emphasize that Q3 results were slightly ahead of consensus on both revenue and earnings, with Q4 guidance generally in line to slightly above prior models. This reinforces confidence in management’s ability to navigate a choppy near term demand environment while positioning for the next upcycle.

Importantly, investors are being guided to a back end loaded 2026. Multiple research notes flag a potentially steep ramp in the second half as customers accelerate spend on HBM, chiplet architectures, and related advanced packaging capacity, which could drive meaningful upside to current consensus assumptions.

In addition, management commentary around the company’s 3D metrology share in HBM4, including upcoming upgrades to its high end Hawk metrology and inspection platform, has been interpreted as a sign that Camtek is well placed to capture incremental share as the technology transition gathers pace.

Against this backdrop, price target revisions, while mixed at the margin, still cluster around levels that imply attractive upside to the current share price. This suggests that the Street largely views any near term softness as transitory within a structurally improving demand landscape.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts have lifted price targets into the $120 to mid $140s range. This reflects increased confidence that Camtek can convert its strong positioning in advanced packaging into sustained earnings growth, even if near term demand is uneven.
• Several reports see a high probability that current 2026 earnings estimates are too low and argue that accelerating AI accelerator and HBM related orders could justify both higher forecasts and an expanded valuation multiple.
• Recent quarters of slight beats on revenue and EPS, coupled with in line to modestly better guidance, are seen as evidence of solid execution. This supports the view that management can deliver on a back end loaded growth profile without major operational missteps.
• Confidence in Camtek’s entrenched role in HBM4 metrology and inspection, alongside planned platform upgrades, is viewed as a structural positive that should underpin share gains and higher margins, and ultimately a premium multiple versus many peers in semiconductor capital equipment.

What's in the News

• Issued revenue guidance for fourth quarter 2025 of around $127 million, implying record full year 2025 revenue of approximately $495 million, up about 15% versus 2024 (company guidance)
• Management indicated 2025 revenue is expected to be weighted toward the second half, reflecting a slower start to the year followed by stronger momentum as orders ramp (company guidance)
• Guidance is based on current orders, sales pipeline, and ongoing customer engagements, which underscores visibility into near term demand from advanced packaging and HBM related investments (company guidance)

Valuation Changes

• The fair value estimate has risen meaningfully, from $120.00 to approximately $143.11 per share, reflecting higher long term profitability assumptions despite softer growth.
• The discount rate has increased slightly, from about 12.6 percent to roughly 14.0 percent, indicating a modestly higher required return or perceived risk profile.
• Revenue growth has been revised down moderately, from around 15.1 percent to about 12.2 percent annually, suggesting a more measured near term top line trajectory.
• The net profit margin has increased significantly, from approximately 25.1 percent to about 47.0 percent, driven by expectations of stronger operating leverage and mix benefits.
• The future P/E multiple has fallen considerably, from about 48.0x to roughly 30.2x, implying a less aggressive valuation on forward earnings despite the higher fair value estimate.