Update shared on05 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.32%UDR’s consensus price target saw a slight downward revision to $44.12 amid leadership uncertainty and some preference for peers, though moderating new supply and sequential rent gains support the outlook.
Analyst Commentary
- Leadership changes at UDR, notably the unexpected resignation of the President and CIO, have introduced uncertainty over management succession and board dynamics.
- Despite decelerating market rents overall, UDR's asking rents showed strong sequential trends recently, which has partly offset broader sector concerns.
- Elevated new apartment supply is now moderating, especially in Sunbelt and coastal markets, improving the medium-term outlook due to reduced competitive pressures.
- Broader apartment REIT stocks have underperformed significantly year-to-date, but the resulting rare valuation discounts have led bullish analysts to adopt a more positive stance on the group.
- Slowing national job growth and a preference for other apartment REITs at current valuations have kept some analysts cautious, though lower short-term rates could provide relief going forward.
What's in the News
- UDR appointed Dave Bragg as Chief Financial Officer, bringing extensive real estate finance experience; he succeeds Joe Fisher, who became Chief Investment Officer and President.
- UDR was added to multiple Russell indexes, including Russell Midcap Growth, Russell 3000E Growth, Russell 3000 Growth, Russell 1000 Growth, Russell 1000 Value-Defensive, Russell 1000 Defensive, and Russell 1000 Growth-Defensive.
- UDR updated 2025 full-year earnings guidance to $0.53–$0.59 per diluted share, down from the previous $0.56–$0.66 range.
- UDR issued Q3 2025 earnings guidance, expecting net income per diluted share between $0.11 and $0.13.
- No shares were repurchased in the latest buyback tranche; total buyback under the ongoing program stands at 2,973,363 shares for $111.32 million.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for UDR
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $44.26 to $44.12.
- The Future P/E for UDR has fallen from 88.25x to 80.11x.
- The Discount Rate for UDR remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 7.27% to 7.29%.
Disclaimer
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