SKT: Future Share Trends Will Reflect Mixed Ratings And Earnings Outlook

The analyst price target for Tanger has edged higher to $36.73 from $36.73. This reflects analysts' view that recent upward target revisions from major firms, grounded in stronger-than-peer core FFO growth projections and robust Q3 REIT earnings trends, more than offset a single downgrade citing better upside elsewhere in the sector.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on Tanger highlights a generally constructive fundamental backdrop, with upward price target revisions outweighing a recent valuation driven downgrade.

Bullish analysts emphasize that solid Q3 execution, resilient leasing metrics and visible earnings growth support higher fair value estimates in the mid to high 30s, with some targets now reaching $40. They note that Tanger's projected core FFO growth in 2025 and 2026 is meaningfully ahead of outlet and shopping center peers, which underpins the premium versus historical multiples. The broader U.S. REIT earnings season, where a majority of companies beat expectations, is also cited as reinforcing confidence that Tanger can sustain above average growth.

Bearish analysts, by contrast, frame their more cautious stance as relative rather than company specific. They argue that after a strong operational recovery and multiple expansion, the near term upside in Tanger shares may be more limited compared with select retail and mixed use REITs that still trade at deeper discounts despite similar or faster earnings trajectories. This camp trims ratings while maintaining price targets in the mid 30s, suggesting that investors may find more attractive risk reward elsewhere in the sector, even as they acknowledge Tanger's improved fundamentals.

Across the spectrum, recent model updates converge on the idea that Tanger's valuation is increasingly sensitive to execution on its growth pipeline and the durability of elevated core FFO growth in a potentially more volatile macro environment.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts see Tanger's core FFO growth outlook for 2025 and 2026 as meaningfully ahead of peers, supporting higher target prices up to $40 and justifying a premium multiple.
• Upward target revisions following Q3 results reflect confidence that the company can continue to translate strong leasing and occupancy trends into sustained earnings growth.
• Sector wide beats in the recent REIT earnings season reinforce the view that Tanger can operate from a position of strength, potentially outperforming if retail fundamentals remain resilient.
• Incremental price target bumps from the low to high 30s signal that, even after a prior re rating, analysts still see room for value creation as execution de risks the growth story.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts argue that much of Tanger's operational improvement is already reflected in the share price, limiting further upside relative to other REITs with more discounted valuations.
• The recent downgrade to a neutral stance underscores concerns that, on a risk reward basis, investors may achieve better total return in peers with similar growth but lower starting multiples.
• Cautious views center on the possibility that any slowdown in core FFO growth or normalization of sector sentiment could pressure Tanger's premium valuation.
• There is concern that continued outperformance versus peers will be required to sustain current targets, leaving less margin for error if leasing or rent growth moderates.

What's in the News

• Tanger raised its 2025 diluted net income per share guidance to a range of $0.95 to $0.99 from prior guidance of $0.93 to $1.00, signaling increased earnings confidence (Corporate Guidance: Raised)
• The company reported no share repurchases under its authorized buyback program between July 1, 2025 and September 30, 2025, leaving capital allocation more skewed toward growth and operations than buybacks in the recent quarter (Buyback Tranche Update)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Unchanged at approximately $36.73 per share, indicating a stable intrinsic value estimate despite recent model refinements.
• Discount Rate: Fallen slightly from about 7.86 percent to 7.85 percent, reflecting a modestly lower assumed cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth: Eased slightly from roughly 2.93 percent to 2.74 percent, suggesting a more conservative outlook for top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin: Risen modestly from about 23.12 percent to 23.52 percent, pointing to incremental improvements in expected profitability.
• Future P/E: Edged down slightly from around 38.77x to 38.31x, implying a marginally lower valuation multiple on forward earnings.