RYN: Share Buybacks And Special Dividend Will Drive Stronger Upside Ahead

Analysts have nudged their price target on Rayonier slightly lower, trimming fair value by about $0.67 per share to roughly $28.17. They cited modestly softer profit margin expectations and a marginally higher discount rate, which only partially offset slightly improved revenue growth projections.

What's in the News

• From July 1, 2025 to November 7, 2025, Rayonier repurchased 1,226,384 shares, or about 0.79% of shares outstanding, for $30.1 million, completing a total buyback of 2,794,312 shares, or 1.8%, for $67.82 million under the December 2, 2024 authorization (company filing).
• Rayonier issued fourth quarter 2025 guidance, projecting net income attributable to Rayonier of $13 million to $17 million, implying earnings per share of $0.08 to $0.11 (company guidance).
• Rayonier announced a merger agreement with PotlatchDeltic Corporation and, concurrently on October 13, 2025, declared a one time special dividend of $1.40 per share, payable December 12, 2025 to shareholders of record on October 24, 2025, with up to 25% in cash and the remainder in Rayonier common shares (company press release).

Valuation Changes

• Fair value estimate was reduced slightly from about $28.83 to approximately $28.17 per share, reflecting a modest downward revision in intrinsic valuation.
• The discount rate was nudged higher from roughly 7.75 percent to about 7.76 percent, indicating a marginally higher required return.
• Revenue growth was revised modestly upward, with the projected long-term decline improving from about negative 40.0 percent to roughly negative 39.2 percent.
• The net profit margin was trimmed slightly from around 9.93 percent to about 9.65 percent, signaling a minor softening in expected profitability.
• The future P/E eased modestly from approximately 190.9x to about 185.1x, suggesting a small reduction in the multiple investors may be willing to pay for future earnings.