RYN: Higher Log Prices Will Drive Upbeat Outlook Into 2025

Analysts have revised Rayonier’s price target upward from $26 to $27, citing higher log price estimates and an improved outlook for 2025. However, they emphasize that the current valuation appears fair.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analysis offers a balanced perspective on Rayonier’s outlook, with insights into both potential strengths and reservations in the company’s trajectory.

• Bullish analysts point to raised full-year 2025 estimates, citing expected increases in log prices during the second half of the year.
• There is optimism regarding the fundamentals supporting Rayonier’s growth, especially as projections into 2026 showcase "clear positives" for the company’s operations and profitability.
• The improved revenue outlook reflects anticipated demand stability in timber markets, which could support stronger cash flows in upcoming quarters.
• Higher price targets signal confidence in management’s ability to navigate near-term challenges and capitalize on favorable market trends.

• Bearish analysts caution that, despite the positive revisions, Rayonier’s current valuation remains "roughly fair" relative to its growth prospects.
• There are ongoing concerns that sales momentum, while improved, may not be sufficient to generate meaningful upside at existing price levels.
• Uncertainty around the sustainability of higher log prices could temper the company’s performance if market trends shift unfavorably.
• Questions remain about the consistency of execution needed for Rayonier to fully benefit from longer-term industry drivers.

What's in the News

• Rayonier completed a share repurchase, buying back a total of 2,794,312 shares for $67.82 million under its buyback program announced in December 2024 (Key Developments).
• The company declared a one-time special dividend of $1.40 per share payable December 12, 2025, with a mix of up to 25% cash and the remainder in Rayonier Common Shares. This follows the announcement of a merger agreement with Potlatchdeltic Corporation (Key Developments).
• Rayonier issued new earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, anticipating net income of $13 million to $17 million and earnings per share between $0.08 and $0.11 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has decreased slightly from $30.29 to $29.33 per share.
• The Discount Rate has risen moderately from 7.28% to 7.76%.
• The Revenue Growth projection has declined significantly, moving from -25.40% to -42.90%.
• The Net Profit Margin estimate has dropped sharply, falling from 20.40% to 0.33%.
• The Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is now projected to increase dramatically from 61.2x to 7,825.7x.