RHP: Convention And Entertainment Portfolio Will Support Premium Leadership Ahead

Analysts have inched up their price target on Ryman Hospitality Properties by about $0.30 to approximately $112.14, citing the company's best in class convention hotel and entertainment portfolio, even as its premium valuation tempers expectations for more aggressive upside.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts remain divided on the risk reward profile for Ryman Hospitality Properties, balancing its strong fundamentals and unique positioning against a valuation that already embeds much of the growth story.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight Ryman's differentiated convention hotel portfolio and entertainment assets as a structural competitive advantage that supports durable demand and pricing power.
• They view the company's entertainment group exposure as a key long term growth driver, creating multiple revenue streams beyond traditional room nights and group bookings.
• The combination of scale, brand recognition, and integrated resort style properties is seen as best in class within hotel focused real estate investment trusts, which some analysts believe justifies a valuation premium.
• Supportive fundamentals in group travel and convention activity underpin expectations for steady cash flow growth and potential upside to long term earnings forecasts.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts point to the current premium valuation versus peers as limiting near term multiple expansion, even if operational execution remains solid.
• They argue that much of the anticipated growth from the entertainment platform and convention recovery is already reflected in the share price, reducing margin for error.
• There is concern that better risk reward opportunities may exist in other lodging or real estate names that offer similar growth at lower valuation multiples.
• Any slowdown in convention demand or delays in entertainment revenue ramp could pressure sentiment, given elevated expectations embedded in current targets.

What's in the News

• Declared a fourth quarter 2025 cash dividend of $1.20 per share, payable January 15, 2026, reinforcing the company’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders (Key Developments).
• Narrowed full year 2025 consolidated operating income guidance to a range of $462.3 million to $475.8 million, modestly tightening expectations while keeping the midpoint near the prior outlook (Key Developments).
• Reaffirmed 2025 net income guidance of $227.0 million to $235.5 million and diluted EPS of $3.41 to $3.53, maintaining confidence in earnings despite a more competitive entertainment landscape (Key Developments).
• Updated 2025 same store Hospitality Total RevPAR growth outlook to 1.00% to 3.00%, narrowing the range while holding the midpoint at 2.00%, indicating steady demand in group and convention business (Key Developments).
• Modestly lowered the midpoint outlook for the Entertainment segment for 2025 due to new live entertainment venue supply in downtown Nashville, while noting that demand for country music and Nashville tourism remains robust (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from approximately $111.85 to about $112.14 per share, reflecting a modest upward adjustment in intrinsic value.
• The Discount Rate has edged down from roughly 8.77% to about 8.74%, indicating a marginally lower assumed cost of capital in the valuation model.
• Revenue Growth has been trimmed slightly from around 7.04% to about 6.93%, suggesting a more conservative outlook for top line expansion.
• The Net Profit Margin has increased from approximately 11.29% to about 12.10%, implying expectations for improved profitability and operating leverage.
• The Future P/E Multiple assumption has declined from about 30.1x to roughly 28.2x, signaling a modestly less aggressive stance on valuation relative to forward earnings.