NXRT: Dividend Momentum And Operating Strength Will Support Attractive Upside

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target for NexPoint Residential Trust by approximately 5 percent to about $33.70. This reflects slightly lower expectations for revenue growth and profit margins, partially offset by a higher anticipated future P E multiple.

What's in the News

• Board approves a quarterly dividend of $0.53 per share, a 3.9% increase over the prior quarter and a 157.3% rise since the dividend program began in 2015 (company announcement)
• Company issues new earnings guidance for Q4 2025, projecting a net loss midpoint of approximately $11.8 million and NOI midpoint of about $37.1 million (company guidance)
• Full year 2025 guidance calls for a net loss midpoint of roughly $33.6 million and NOI midpoint of about $151.8 million, highlighting continued operating profitability despite expected net loss (company guidance)
• Share repurchase program update shows no buybacks in the July 1 to September 30, 2025 window, with the long running authorization now totaling 3.21 million shares repurchased for $94.5 million since 2016 (company filing)

Valuation Changes

• The fair value estimate has fallen modestly from $35.50 to approximately $33.67, reflecting slightly lower long term expectations.
• The discount rate has risen slightly from about 9.41% to roughly 9.69%, indicating a marginally higher required return.
• The revenue growth assumption has decreased meaningfully from around 4.01% to about 2.91%, signaling more conservative top line expectations.
• The net profit margin forecast has edged down from roughly 18.02% to about 16.92%, pointing to slightly weaker anticipated profitability.
• The future P/E multiple has increased modestly from about 22.5x to roughly 23.8x, partially offsetting lower growth and margin assumptions.