Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Mid-America Apartment Communities’ price target remains unchanged as analysts weigh delayed rent growth acceleration, muted near-term fundamentals, and sector underperformance against long-term demand and valuation discounts, keeping the fair value at $159.12.
Analyst Commentary
- Bearish analysts cite a delay in rent growth acceleration, with expectations pushed out to 2026 and below-consensus projections for 2025-26.
- Same-store revenue growth guidance has been reduced, partially offset by lower expense forecasts and continued strong absorption/demand, but broader economic uncertainty is tempering recovery expectations in the Sun Belt.
- The pace of new apartment supply is expected to significantly decline, setting up for improving same-store NOI and FFO growth in coming years, while current valuation discounts versus private market values are seen as attractive by bullish analysts.
- Sector-wide negative sentiment and underperformance (apartment REITs among the worst-performing subsectors year-to-date) led to a general reset of expectations, with stocks now trading at rare discounts to broader REIT peers.
- Despite ongoing demographic tailwinds and strong fundamental demand in target markets, recent share price recovery has closed much of MAA's valuation gap to large-cap peers, leading to less near-term multiple expansion potential and more cautious ratings.
What's in the News
- No shares were repurchased during the last reported quarter under the ongoing buyback program.
- Full year 2025 earnings guidance was lowered to $5.25–$5.49 per diluted share from $5.51–$5.83.
- Removed from the Russell 1000 Dynamic Index.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Mid-America Apartment Communities
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $159.12.
- The Future P/E for Mid-America Apartment Communities has fallen slightly from 47.99x to 46.79x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Mid-America Apartment Communities remained effectively unchanged, at 4.8% per annum.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.