IRM: Digital And Data Center Expansion Will Drive Long-Term Compounding Despite Short Report

Analysts have nudged their blended price target on Iron Mountain modestly higher to about $117 per share, citing continued confidence in double digit growth, resilient data center and digital expansion, and recent supportive research that raised targets to the $120 to $125 range despite short seller noise.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street commentary on Iron Mountain has been broadly supportive, with most research notes emphasizing resilient fundamentals, execution on growth initiatives, and a limited fundamental impact from recent short seller noise.

Overall, analysts continue to view the company as a durable compounder, with updated models and new coverage reinforcing confidence in management's strategy and the sustainability of double digit growth across newer business lines.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight that the short report introduces no materially new information, reinforcing the view that the stock's long term growth thesis remains intact despite near term volatility.
• Updated models following recent management meetings support incremental price target increases, suggesting potential upside if execution in data centers and digital solutions continues.
• New coverage notes that the strategic transformation toward higher growth segments, including data centers, digital solutions, and asset lifecycle management, is accelerating the revenue mix shift and supporting a premium valuation.
• The company's large and diversified customer base is seen as a structural advantage that can support cross selling into growth verticals and underpin expectations for sustained double digit growth.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts and short sellers point to modestly negative volume trends in the more mature North America physical storage business as a potential drag on legacy cash flows over time.
• Some investors remain cautious that headline risk from public short reports could periodically pressure the multiple, even if fundamentals remain sound.
• There is ongoing scrutiny around execution risk in scaling newer businesses, with concerns that any slowdown in growth or margin expansion could challenge the elevated valuation.

What's in the News

• Short seller Gotham City Research claimed Iron Mountain manipulates adjusted leverage and EBITDA, calling the shares uninvestible and valuing them at $23 to $41 per share, which implies over 50% downside from current levels (Periodicals).
• The company reiterated its guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, targeting roughly 14% year over year revenue growth in the fourth quarter and about 12% growth at the midpoint for the full year, with expected 2025 revenue between $6.79 billion and $6.94 billion (Key Developments).
• Iron Mountain declared a 10% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.864 per share, payable January 6, 2026 to shareholders of record on December 15, 2025, which the company indicated reflects management's confidence in cash flow durability (Key Developments).
• The company reported that it has completed repurchases totaling 37,720,590 shares, or 19.33% of shares, for about $1.13 billion under its long running buyback program announced in 2010, with no shares repurchased in the most recent quarter (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has remained unchanged at approximately $116.73 per share, indicating no material shift in the model’s intrinsic value assessment.
• Discount Rate has risen slightly from about 8.55% to roughly 8.60%, reflecting a modest uptick in the required return embedded in the valuation.
• Revenue Growth has increased marginally from about 9.97% to approximately 9.99%, suggesting a slightly more optimistic outlook for top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin has edged down fractionally from about 8.25% to roughly 8.25% (8.245%), implying a negligible decrease in expected profitability levels.
• Future P/E has ticked up modestly from about 61.69x to roughly 61.76x, pointing to a small increase in the multiple applied to forward earnings.