Update shared on 30 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 4.65%Empire State Realty Trust's analyst price target has been reduced from $8.97 to $8.55 per share, as analysts cite ongoing macroeconomic and labor market concerns even though the REIT sector has generally shown stable performance.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways
- Several analysts note that, despite current macroeconomic and labor market headwinds, the majority of REITs, including Empire State Realty Trust, reported stable earnings and maintained positive outlooks for Q3 2025.
- Operating fundamentals remain resilient, with healthy leasing activity and occupancy rates supporting the company's underlying performance.
- Bullish analysts highlight that high-profile exceptions do not detract from the broad sector strength. This offers some confidence in the company's long-term valuation and ability to weather economic challenges.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts point to the recent reduction in price targets as a reflection of rising uncertainty around valuation, especially given persistent macroeconomic and labor market challenges.
- Concerns remain that, in the current environment, execution risk is increasing. This could impact revenue growth and margin expansion in upcoming quarters.
- Some analysts believe that even though current operating conditions are stable, limited visibility into market recovery and potential rate hikes could pressure share performance moving forward.
- The maintenance of an Underweight rating by some major institutions signals continued caution around near-term upside for Empire State Realty Trust.
What's in the News
- Empire State Realty Trust signed an 18,230 square foot expansion lease with Gerson Lehrman Group, bringing GLG's total footprint to 95,612 square feet at One Grand Central Place. GLG renewed its 77,382 square foot office space at the building in April 2025. (Client Announcements)
- Empire State Realty Trust reaffirmed earnings guidance for 2025, expecting net income per share attributable to Common Stockholders and the Operating Partnership of $0.22 to $0.25. (Corporate Guidance, New/Confirmed)
- The company announced a new lease with Tourneau, LLC for a 3,709 square foot Rolex retail store at 86 North Sixth Street, expanding its North Sixth Street Collection of leading brands. (Client Announcements)
- Empire State Realty Trust finalized a lease with SORA for a 14,430 square foot retail space at One Grand Central Place. SORA will offer multiple Japanese chef-driven dining concepts and a direct-from-Tokyo cocktail experience. (Client Announcements)
- As of October 28, 2025, the company completed the repurchase of 310,415 shares, totaling $2.15 million under its ongoing buyback program. (Buyback Tranche Update)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: Lowered from $8.97 to $8.55 per share, reflecting a modest decrease in expected fair value.
- Discount Rate: Decreased slightly from 8.49% to 8.11%, suggesting a marginal reduction in perceived investment risk.
- Revenue Growth: Increased slightly from 1.46% to 1.54%, indicating improved expectations for top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Decreased from 1.72% to 1.68%, showing a minor compression in profitability projections.
- Future P/E: Dropped significantly from 245.1x to 141.9x, indicating lower anticipated earnings multiples based on revised forecasts.
Disclaimer
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