Oscar Health's analyst price targets have recently shifted modestly upward, with the average target rising to around $13 to $14 per share as analysts cite updated industry outlooks, expected subsidy extensions, and company guidance for a potential return to profitability in 2026.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst coverage of Oscar Health reflects a mix of cautious optimism along with some lingering concerns about the company's near-term execution and long-term recovery prospects. The Street's overall stance remains largely neutral, highlighting both upside and downside factors that could influence valuation moving forward.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts have raised price targets based on updated assumptions, including an expected extension of enhanced government subsidies. This would support continued membership growth and revenue stability.
• Some view the managed care industry as poised to enter a margin recovery phase starting in 2026, which could benefit Oscar Health’s longer-term profitability outlook.
• The company’s reaffirmed guidance for profitability in 2026 is seen as a potential inflection point for operating performance and valuation re-rating if achieved.
• Improved industry outlooks and the company’s commitment to updated guidance have increased confidence in execution through the next two years.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts point to significant uncertainty surrounding Oscar Health’s 2025 earnings guide and the achievability of its 2026 profitability targets.
• Near-term headwinds remain because the managed care sector is navigating its most challenging underwriting environment in over 15 years.
• There are concerns that recovery in key areas such as Medicaid and the healthcare exchange market could be uneven and slower than anticipated.
• Cautious analysts maintain neutral or underweight ratings, highlighting both execution risks and the need for Oscar to prove consistent progress toward its margin recovery goals.

What's in the News

• Oscar Health is launching affordable, tech-powered health plans for individuals, families, and businesses in multiple new markets for 2026 Open Enrollment. The expansion will include Alabama, Mississippi, Arizona, Charlotte (NC), Orlando (FL), Tampa Bay (FL), Dallas/Fort Worth (TX), San Antonio (TX), New Jersey, Ohio, and El Paso (TX). (Key Developments)
• Introduction of Oswell, a personal health AI agent powered by OpenAI, offering members on-demand support for medications, test results, symptoms, prescription refills, drug interactions, and virtual care. (Key Developments)
• Oscar Health and Elektra Health announced HelloMeno, the first-ever menopause health plan in the ACA marketplace, which will be available across a broad range of states starting in 2026. The plan includes $0 visits to primary care, gynecologist, and behavioral health providers, as well as hormone therapy and bone density scans. (Key Developments)
• Launch of new chronic and condition-focused health plans for diabetes, COPD, asthma, and cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome. These plans feature $0 care, low-cost medications, free health coaching, and medical devices. (Key Developments)
• Hy-Vee and Oscar Health are partnering to introduce an innovative employer health plan. The plan provides unlimited $0 primary and urgent care at Hy-Vee Health Exemplar Care clinics, direct access to specialists, and grocery store perks for employees. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value remains unchanged at $12.38 per share, indicating no adjustment in model-implied intrinsic valuation.
• Discount Rate is steady at 6.78%, with no shift in the underlying cost of capital assumptions.
• Revenue Growth estimate is virtually unchanged, marginally decreasing from 8.78% to 8.78%.
• Net Profit Margin estimate remains stable, with a negligible increase from 2.52% to 2.52%.
• Future P/E multiple holds at 12.76x. This reflects no material change in projected valuation multiples.