HGTY: 2026 Margin Inflection And Partnerships Will Shape Balanced Share Outlook

Analysts have nudged their average price target on Hagerty higher to reflect growing conviction that the company’s classic car insurance leadership, expanding State Farm partnership, and anticipated 2026 inflection in growth and margins can justify a move toward the Street’s $13 to $15 target range.

Analyst Commentary

Street research on Hagerty reflects a balanced mix of optimism on the company’s growth runway and caution around valuation and execution risks into 2026.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts point to Hagerty’s position as a global leader in specialty insurance for classic and enthusiast vehicles, highlighting a wide moat and limited direct competition as justification for premium valuation multiples.
• The expanding relationship with State Farm is viewed as a key catalyst for accelerating written premium growth over the next several years, supporting confidence in management’s long term growth algorithm.
• Several research notes underscore macro tailwinds in the enthusiast vehicle market and the company’s growing non insurance revenue streams from its marketplace and media businesses as incremental upside drivers.
• Price target increases toward the mid teens are being framed around an anticipated 2026 inflection in growth and margins, with improving profitability expected to close the gap between current earnings power and the Street’s targets.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts argue that at current levels the shares are close to fair value, with the stock already discounting much of the expected premium growth and margin expansion, limiting near term upside.
• There is concern that margin improvement remains a critical execution hurdle, and that without clearer evidence of operating leverage, the valuation could be vulnerable to multiple compression.
• Some research highlights the risk of a potential 2026 accounting related air pocket, which could temporarily distort reported growth and profitability metrics and weigh on sentiment.
• Equal Weight and Market Perform ratings emphasize that while the long term story is attractive, investors may need to see more consistent delivery on growth and profitability milestones before re rating the shares higher.

What's in the News

• Raised 2025 revenue guidance to a range of approximately $1.37 billion to $1.38 billion, up from $1.36 billion to $1.37 billion, signaling strengthened confidence in top line growth. (Company guidance)
• Increased 2025 net income guidance to a range of $124 million to $129 million, from a prior outlook of $112 million to $120 million, reflecting improving profitability expectations. (Company guidance)
• Signed a new partnership with Liberty Mutual Insurance, under which Liberty Mutual and Safeco customers will gain access to Hagerty’s enhanced collectible car insurance beginning in 2026, expanding distribution with a top 10 U.S. auto insurer. (Client announcement)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate remained unchanged at approximately $13.71 per share, indicating no material shift in the intrinsic value assessment.
• Discount Rate edged down slightly from 6.96% to 6.96%, reflecting a marginally lower implied risk profile in the model.
• Revenue Growth was effectively unchanged at about 4.54%, suggesting stable expectations for Hagerty’s top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin remained essentially flat at roughly 15.59%, indicating consistent long term profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E held steady at about 8.52x, signaling no notable change in the multiple applied to forward earnings.