AnalystConsensusTarget updated the narrative for AFL

Analysts have increased their price targets for Aflac, with upward revisions ranging from $1 to $6 per share. They cite stable earnings performance, as well as positive impacts from new product sales and favorable claims experience.

Analyst Commentary

Recent adjustments to Aflac’s price targets reflect a mix of supportive and cautious analyst sentiment. Most of the Street sees positive momentum in key areas, while a few have raised questions regarding the sustainability of recent trends.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight Aflac’s resilient earnings performance, noting that macro uncertainties in the first half of the year did not materially impact results.
• New product launches, particularly in the cancer segment, have contributed to a sales rebound and improved outlook for future earnings.
• Favorable claims experience and steady distribution channels are cited as indicators of continued operational strength and earnings emergence.
• Increased price targets are attributed in part to improved sales performance in Japan and better than expected net interest income. Both factors support higher near-term valuations.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts continue to question the sustainability of the recent surge in new product sales. There are especially concerns regarding potential declines after the initial reselling wave to existing customers.
• Some caution remains about ongoing secular flow headwinds, which could temper growth even as positive tailwinds are acknowledged.
• Despite upward revisions, lower rating stances from some analysts reflect concerns about the company’s long-term growth rate relative to peers in the insurance sector.

What's in the News

• Piper Sandler raised Aflac’s price target to $125 from $122 and maintains an Overweight rating, citing favorable claims experience, normalization in variable investment income, and ongoing strength in distribution (Piper Sandler).
• Aflac announced an increase in its equity buyback plan, adding authorization for 100 million more shares and raising the total to 380 million shares.
• Between April and June 2025, Aflac repurchased over 7.9 million shares valued at $829.2 million, bringing total shares repurchased under its ongoing buyback program to over 249 million, or 38.39% of shares outstanding.

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value remains unchanged at $110.00 per share according to the latest update.
• The Discount Rate has risen slightly, moving from 6.78% to 6.79%.
• The Revenue Growth expectation is stable, holding steady at approximately 5.40%.
• The Net Profit Margin has edged down marginally, from 20.59% to 20.57%.
• The Future P/E ratio has increased very slightly from 16.65x to 16.67x.