Update shared on05 Sep 2025
Selective Insurance Group’s shares faced pressure from weaker earnings, a $45M reserve charge, and increased combined ratio guidance, prompting analysts to reassess valuation and maintain the consensus price target at $83.33 due to unresolved concerns about reserve adequacy.
Analyst Commentary
- Weaker-than-expected earnings report pressured shares.
- A $45M reserve charge weighed on recent financial results.
- Increased combined ratio guidance raised concerns about future underwriting profitability.
- Substantial stock price decline prompted reassessment of valuation.
- Outstanding concerns about reserve adequacy remain unresolved.
What's in the News
- Updated 2025 earnings guidance, expecting after-tax net investment income of $415 million, higher than prior guidance of $405 million, with an effective tax rate of approximately 21.5%.
- Completed repurchase of 554,551 shares (0.92%) for $44.74 million under the buyback program announced in December 2020; no shares repurchased from April 1 to June 30, 2025.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Selective Insurance Group
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $83.33.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Selective Insurance Group remained effectively unchanged, at 6.3% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for Selective Insurance Group remained effectively unchanged, at 9.86%.
Disclaimer
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