Analysts have lowered their average price target for AMERISAFE, citing industry-wide valuation pressures and expectations for stable profitability. Recent targets have been reduced by $5 to $20 compared to previous estimates.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst updates reflect a mix of optimism and caution surrounding AMERISAFE, with price targets trending lower due to broader industry dynamics and company-specific outlooks.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts expect results to benefit from lower-than-average catastrophe losses, supporting profitability.
- There is anticipation of positive contributions from mark to market movements in book value, which may enhance financial metrics.
- Focus remains on the pricing environment, which could present upside if market conditions become more favorable.
- Some analysts maintain an Outperform view, citing resilient execution and stable fundamentals in spite of sector headwinds.
Bearish Takeaways
- Persistent valuation pressures across the property and casualty sector have prompted downward revisions in target prices.
- Expectations for stable rather than expanding profitability lead to more cautious outlooks regarding growth potential.
- Ongoing concerns about casualty loss reserves could weigh on performance and investor sentiment.
- Several analysts indicate that shares are fairly valued, limiting the potential for significant near-term upside.
What's in the News
- Truist lowered its price target on Amerisafe shares to $45 from $50 and maintained a Hold rating, citing stable profitability and industry valuation pressures (Periodical).
- Chief Financial Officer Anastasios Omiridis has notified AMERISAFE of his intent to resign effective November 30, 2025. President and CEO G. Janelle Frost will assume principal financial officer duties during the search for a replacement (Key Development).
- The company completed two tranches of share buybacks in Q3 2025, repurchasing a total of 30,860 shares for $1.3 million (Key Development).
- AMERISAFE's Board declared a special cash dividend of $1.00 per share, payable on December 12, 2025 (Key Development).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value has remained unchanged and is holding steady at $50.33.
- The Discount Rate has risen slightly, increasing from 6.78% to 6.96%.
- Revenue Growth projections are essentially flat, with estimates stable at approximately 4.61%.
- Net Profit Margin is unchanged and remains near 9.94%.
- The Future P/E ratio has edged up marginally from 31.29x to 31.44x.
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