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Update shared on08 Oct 2025

Fair value Decreased 1.96%
AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
US$21.70
23.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
08 Oct
US$16.65
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1Y
-22.4%
7D
5.3%

Kenvue's analyst fair value estimate has been reduced to $21.70 from $22.13. This change reflects ongoing concerns among analysts about muted growth prospects and potential headline risks in the personal care segment.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Kenvue reveals a diverse set of views regarding the company's near-term challenges and longer-term opportunities. Analysts are updating their models and price targets in response to both headline risks and structural developments in the personal care and self-care markets.

Bullish Takeaways

  • Bullish analysts emphasize that the current valuation discount to household and personal care peers represents a potentially attractive entry point for investors willing to weather near-term volatility.
  • Some see the recent selloff as possibly overdone, especially given the lack of definitive scientific evidence linking Tylenol's active ingredient to neurodevelopmental conditions. This could suggest a more limited long-term impact to Kenvue's business than current headlines imply.
  • Strategic actions by Kenvue's board, including an ongoing review of the portfolio, are viewed as clear paths to potential value creation. This is particularly the case given the company's sizable scale in self care.
  • Guidance resets by the executive team are seen as achievable and help set more realistic expectations moving forward. This could improve operational execution and credibility with investors.

Bearish Takeaways

  • Bearish analysts highlight muted and decelerating growth prospects across parts of the personal care segment, leading to price target reductions and more cautious outlooks.
  • Headline and reputational risks stemming from proposed changes to Tylenol's safety labels and regulatory scrutiny are causing reevaluations of growth and earnings trajectories.
  • There are near-universal cuts to topline and earnings estimates across the consumer staples space, reflecting broader market caution and uncertainty in consumer demand trends.
  • Legal uncertainties and ongoing litigation add further risk, which could delay strategic initiatives and weigh on overall valuation multiples in the near term.

What's in the News

  • President Trump publicly warned against Tylenol use during pregnancy, citing unproven links to autism. His own administration and scientific advisers have stated that no causal relationship has been established (The Wall Street Journal).
  • The Trump administration is planning to issue warnings connecting Tylenol’s active ingredient to autism in pregnant women, though Kenvue reiterates that no confirmed causal link exists (Bloomberg).
  • Kenvue’s interim CEO met with Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to defend Tylenol’s safety in advance of an anticipated government report that will suggest an autism connection. Kenvue emphasized the lack of clear scientific evidence for such claims (The Wall Street Journal).
  • Following reports connecting Tylenol to autism, shares of Kenvue dropped significantly, with the company facing renewed regulatory and reputational scrutiny (The Wall Street Journal).
  • Evercore ISI lowered Kenvue’s price target, citing ongoing headline risks and also noting that legal uncertainties may delay strategic initiatives despite a lack of definitive evidence against Tylenol (Evercore ISI).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate: Lowered from $22.13 to $21.70. This reflects a modest decrease in analyst expectations.
  • Discount Rate: Reduced slightly from 8.30% to 8.24%. This indicates a small shift in required return assumptions.
  • Revenue Growth: Marginally decreased from 2.56% to 2.55%. This highlights stable but muted sales outlooks.
  • Net Profit Margin: Increased very slightly from 13.08% to 13.09%. This suggests minimal change in profitability estimates.
  • Future P/E Ratio: Declined from 25.31x to 24.78x. This shows modestly lower expectations for future earnings multiples.

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.