Update shared on23 Aug 2025
Fair value Decreased 23%Coty’s analyst price target was revised down from $6.44 to $4.96 due to weak recent results, persistent operational and market challenges, falling EBITDA expectations, and ongoing skepticism around management's ability to stabilize fundamentals in the near term.
Analyst Commentary
- Weaker-than-expected fiscal Q4 results and guidance, with analysts citing disappointing first half 2026 outlook, ongoing operational issues, and expectations for further declines in adjusted EBITDA over the next two quarters.
- Persistent consumer beauty market weakness and industry-wide destocking, alongside concerns about Coty’s ability to stabilize revenue, profit, and manage its debt leverage in the near term.
- Growing portfolio reliance on fragrance, where Coty is losing market share as category momentum moderates, and a strategic pullback in mass cosmetics investments raising doubts about future growth drivers.
- Uncertainty around management credibility, lack of clear fundamental catalysts, and skepticism about Coty reversing recent negative trends within the next six months.
- Despite bearishness on near-term execution, bullish analysts see Coty as undervalued compared to historical levels, highlighting improved fundamentals since 2020, potential upside from asset sales, and higher sum-of-the-parts deal valuations in the range of $6.50–$10 per share.
What's in the News
- Coty launched Origen, a new global fragrance brand with five signature scents, debuting exclusively online at Walmart in the U.S. with in-store availability to follow.
- COVERGIRL introduced Lash Blast Bond Mascara featuring a bonding complex for improved lash quality, up to 5x visible volume, and 24-hour wear, available in four shades and approved as cruelty-free.
- Rumors report Coty is seeking buyers to divest both its luxury (including Hugo Boss, Gucci, Burberry) and consumer (CoverGirl, Max Factor) segments, with early-stage discussions allegedly held with Interparfums; Coty declined to comment.
- COVERGIRL launched Clean Fresh Blurring Skin Tint, offering lightweight, SPF 30 coverage with ingredients to smooth, brighten, and control oil, suitable for all skin types and certified cruelty-free.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Coty
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly fallen from $6.44 to $4.96.
- The Net Profit Margin for Coty has significantly fallen from 7.02% to 4.87%.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Coty has significantly fallen from 1.7% per annum to 1.3% per annum.
Disclaimer
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