Update shared on18 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 4.54%Despite ongoing operational headwinds, weak consumer beauty trends, and lingering management concerns, analysts have modestly raised Coty’s fair value estimate from $4.82 to $5.04, reflecting cautious optimism but requiring clear evidence of stabilization before a more positive stance.
Analyst Commentary
- Weaker than expected fiscal Q4 results and underwhelming first half 2026 guidance; challenges expected to persist for at least two additional quarters.
- Continued retailer destocking and a delayed growth inflection in Coty’s Consumer Beauty division, now anticipated no earlier than Q3 of 2026.
- Ongoing consumer beauty category weakness, with concerns about Coty's reduced mass cosmetics investment and increasing reliance on the fragrance segment which is losing share as category growth moderates.
- Analysts cite ongoing operational issues, lack of clear fundamental drivers, and diminished management credibility as reasons for their cautious outlook.
- Some bullish analysts acknowledge improved fundamentals since 2020, suggesting the shares are undervalued versus historical context, but require evidence of revenue, profit, and leverage stabilization before turning more constructive.
What's in the News
- Company completed repurchase of 3,933,694 shares (1.16%) for $104.65 million under its long-term buyback plan; no shares repurchased in the most recent quarter.
- Fiscal 2026 guidance reaffirmed: sales and profit trends expected to improve sequentially; first-half net revenues to remain negative due to inventory reduction and a more promotional environment, with revenues anticipated to turn positive in the second half as comparisons ease and new launches contribute.
- EBITDA in the first half expected to be weighed down by lower sales, tariff impacts, and restoration of variable compensation.
- Introduced "Origen," a new consumer fragrance brand with five signature scents, launched exclusively online via Walmart, with in-store rollout to follow.
- COVERGIRL launched Lash Blast Bond Mascara, emphasizing instant volume, lash protection, and cruelty-free credentials.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Coty
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $4.82 to $5.04.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Coty has significantly risen from 1.3% per annum to 1.5% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Coty has risen slightly from 18.89x to 19.77x.
Disclaimer
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