CHD: Share Buybacks And Cash Priorities Will Drive Upside Potential

Analysts have lowered their price targets for Church & Dwight by $15 to a range of $100 to $105 per share, citing persistent challenges in the consumer packaged goods sector such as limited pricing power, evolving consumer preferences, and an increased retailer focus on private label products.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research notes reflect the cautious optimism and the persistent concerns shaping sentiment around Church & Dwight’s outlook. While analysts have trimmed price targets, their commentary highlights both supportive and challenging factors that influence the company’s expected performance and valuation.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts maintain a positive rating on the shares and point to Church & Dwight’s enduring brand equity and its ability to perform amid broader sector challenges.
• Despite the lowered price targets, there is continued confidence that the company can navigate short-term headwinds and benefit from its well-established position as a core consumer staples name.
• Execution discipline and a focus on operational efficiency are viewed as supportive for long-term growth. This potentially enables outperformance relative to peers in a constrained environment.
• Some analysts see opportunities for Church & Dwight to outperform in periods of high private label competition due to its portfolio of trusted household brands.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts note limited pricing power across consumer packaged goods, which could restrict top-line and earnings growth in the near term.
• The increased emphasis from major retailers on private label products is expected to heighten competition and potentially erode market share.
• Shifting consumer preferences and evolving category dynamics present risks to consistent revenue growth and could challenge the company’s ability to meet previous expectations.
• Lingering macro risks, such as tariffs and potential impacts from changes in food and nutrition trends, add further uncertainty to forecasts and valuation.

What's in the News

• Church & Dwight repurchased 2,153,568 shares between July and September 2025 for $201.02 million, completing a total buyback of 16,453,155 shares under a program announced in 2014 (Key Developments).
• The company also repurchased 1,400,060 shares in the same period for $130 million as part of a separate buyback program from 2021. This brings the total to 4,946,170 shares since inception (Key Developments).
• Management reaffirmed its focus on mergers and acquisitions and described M&A as the top cash priority in its Third Quarter 2025 earnings call. The company highlighted strong cash flow and an upgraded balance sheet, which give it flexibility for buybacks and further deals (Key Developments).
• Church & Dwight revised earnings guidance for full-year 2025 and now expects net sales growth of approximately 1.5% and organic net sales growth of approximately 1% (Key Developments).
• OxiClean, a Church & Dwight brand, launched a playful collaboration with White Castle for National Adulting Day 2025. This included the release of limited-edition Craver's Cleanup Kits in select markets and online (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value remains unchanged at $96.95 per share.
• Discount Rate increased slightly from 6.78% to 6.96%.
• Revenue Growth is essentially flat, holding steady at approximately 3.86%.
• Net Profit Margin remains stable, with a negligible decrease from 14.78% to 14.78%.
• Future P/E declined modestly from 26.23x to 26.02x.