ODD: Continued Earnings Momentum Will Drive A Near-Term Stock Rebound

Analysts have modestly lowered their average price target for Oddity Tech from approximately $73.20 to $70.27. They cite a mixed outlook, with near-term revenue growth remaining strong, but profit margin forecasts and long-term multiples have softened amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a mix of optimism and caution among analysts assessing Oddity Tech's prospects. Updated price targets and commentary captured both the resilience of its business model along with emerging concerns over valuation and macroeconomic pressures.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts increased price targets after Oddity's stronger Q3 results and improved guidance for Q4 and fiscal 2025. They highlighted sustained momentum despite market pressures.
• Oddity has delivered its tenth consecutive quarter of earnings beats and raised guidance since its IPO, which points to superior execution and a track record of exceeding expectations.
• The direct-to-consumer model, combined with a shift in demand to online channels and a focus on higher efficacy products, continues to drive robust growth even as broader consumer sentiment remains variable.
• Recent updates and outperformance on EBITDA have reassured investors and are seen as catalysts for a near-term rebound in the stock's valuation.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts lowered their price targets in response to softer long-term valuation multiples and profit margin forecasts, reflecting heightened caution amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
• There are lingering concerns about how changing consumer spending patterns might impact future revenue growth as economic conditions evolve.
• Despite operational strength, some see valuation risks if Oddity cannot sustain its high growth rates in a more challenging market environment.
• The company’s outlook, while positive in the near term, faces headwinds that could limit multiple expansion and pressure overall profitability going forward.

What's in the News

• Oddity Tech Ltd. issued new earnings guidance for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2025, expecting net revenue between $149 million and $152 million. This reflects anticipated year-over-year growth of 21% to 23% (Key Developments).
• The company raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance and now projects net revenue of $806 million to $809 million, an increase from previous guidance of $799 million to $804 million (Key Developments).
• ODDITY Tech Ltd. launched METHODIQ, a medical telehealth platform that delivers AI-powered, customized treatments with an initial focus on dermatology. The platform features 28 core products and more than 100 personalized plans (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased modestly from $73.20 to $70.27, reflecting a slight reduction in fair value estimates.
• Discount Rate has fallen slightly from 9.60% to 9.20%, signaling marginally lower perceived risk or required return by analysts.
• Revenue Growth projections have increased a bit, moving from 19.01% to 19.34%, suggesting stronger anticipated topline expansion.
• Net Profit Margin expectations have edged down from 13.97% to 13.78%, indicating a minor reduction in profitability forecasts.
• Future P/E ratio assumptions have risen from 28.86x to 31.03x. This points to higher anticipated valuation multiples for Oddity Tech’s earnings.