EW: Long-Term TAVR Durability Will Drive Future Low-Risk Expansion

Analysts have modestly raised their fair value estimate for Edwards Lifesciences to approximately $95 from about $94, reflecting a blend of slightly lower perceived risk, resilient high-20s profit margin expectations, and stronger confidence in long term transcatheter aortic valve replacement growth following robust Q3 results and favorable recent clinical and coverage catalysts.

Analyst Commentary

Street research sentiment around Edwards Lifesciences has turned more constructive, with multiple firms lifting ratings and price targets following strong Q3 execution, favorable TAVR data presentations, and improving confidence in long term growth durability.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts are raising price targets into the low to mid $90s, with one major global bank now targeting above $100. This reflects increased confidence in Edwards' ability to sustain high single digit to low double digit top line growth and expand earnings.
• Upgrades to Buy equivalents cite accelerating transcatheter aortic valve replacement growth, supported by high frequency market data and robust seven year durability outcomes that could underpin higher penetration in low risk patient segments.
• Recent TCT and PARTNER 3 readouts are viewed as clearing events that alleviate worst case fears and reinforce TAVR's competitive positioning versus surgery. This supports higher utilization assumptions and improved long term cash flow visibility.
• Management's decision to guide full year 2025 revenue toward the high end of prior ranges and lift adjusted EPS targets is seen as evidence of strong execution and operating leverage. This underpins upward revisions to intrinsic value estimates.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts and more cautious voices, even where ratings have improved, continue to anchor fair value in a lower $70 to mid $80 range. They argue that the recent share price rebound may already discount much of the positive TAVR and symposium news.
• Some remain concerned that, despite better than feared durability data, lingering uncertainties around long term TAVR performance and competitive dynamics could cap upside to volume growth and limit multiple expansion.
• Hold rated commentary highlights the risk that current expectations for accelerating U.S. TAVR in the near term could prove aggressive if macro, reimbursement, or procedural capacity constraints emerge. This could create potential for sentiment driven volatility.
• There is also caution that elevated expectations around new product launches and incremental structural heart markets, such as transcatheter tricuspid replacement, may take longer to meaningfully contribute to earnings than bulls currently model.

What's in the News

• Announced strong one year ENCIRCLE trial results for the SAPIEN M3 TMVR system and positive real world registry data for the EVOQUE TTVR system, showing high rates of valve regurgitation elimination and low complication rates, reinforcing leadership in mitral and tricuspid therapies (Key Developments).
• Reported seven year PARTNER 3 and ten year PARTNER 2 data demonstrating durable long term outcomes and comparable valve performance between SAPIEN 3 TAVR and surgery, supporting sustained confidence in TAVR durability across risk profiles (Key Developments).
• Raised full year 2025 total sales growth outlook to the high end of 9% to 10%, indicating increasing management confidence in revenue momentum (Key Developments).
• Provided fourth quarter 2025 sales guidance of $1.51 billion to $1.59 billion, giving clearer visibility into near term operating performance (Key Developments).
• Disclosed a planned transition of Chief Financial Officer Scott Ullem by mid 2026, with an orderly succession and advisory role to support continuity in financial leadership (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to approximately $95.37 from about $93.94, reflecting a modest upward revision in intrinsic value.
• Discount Rate has fallen marginally to about 7.71% from roughly 7.73%, indicating a slightly lower perceived risk profile.
• Revenue Growth has edged down slightly to around 9.81% from approximately 9.91%, suggesting a minor tempering of long term top line expectations.
• Net Profit Margin has increased modestly to roughly 24.69% from about 24.01%, implying slightly stronger anticipated profitability.
• Future P/E has declined slightly to about 34.6x from roughly 34.95x, indicating a small reduction in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.