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DVA: Clinical Initiatives And Buybacks Will Support Earnings Despite Reimbursement Headwinds

DVA: Policy Shifts And Operational Recovery Will Shape Outlook In 2025

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DVA
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 22 Aug 2024

Update shared on 20 Dec 2025

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Analysts modestly raised their price target on DaVita to about $145 per share, reflecting slightly lower discount rate assumptions and a marginally improved long term earnings outlook, while maintaining stable fair value and growth expectations.

What's in the News

  • DaVita will unveil six new clinical studies at ASN Kidney Week 2025 in Houston, including an oral presentation on GLP-1 receptor agonist use and its association with lower hospitalization rates in end stage kidney disease patients (company announcement).
  • The company is highlighting research on home dialysis initiation, comorbid conditions, and outcomes for in center nocturnal dialysis patients, underscoring its focus on tailoring treatments to specific patient subgroups (company announcement).
  • DaVita is launching two large scale initiatives, MODEL and MEMOIRS, to evaluate medium cut off dialyzers and their impact on survival, inflammation, and patient reported outcomes in roughly 9,000 U.S. adults with end stage kidney disease over two years (company announcement).
  • From July 1 to September 30, 2025, DaVita repurchased 1,638,000 shares for about $232.82 million, completing 45.83 percent of the long running buyback program announced in December 2020 (company filing).
  • Over the same period, the company also repurchased 1,636,000 shares for approximately $232.33 million under a separate buyback launched in May 2024, bringing total repurchases under that program to 12,818,000 shares for about $1.81 billion (company filing).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value: Unchanged at $144.50 per share, indicating no material revision to intrinsic value estimates.
  • Discount Rate: Fallen slightly from 8.19 percent to about 8.16 percent, modestly increasing the present value of projected cash flows.
  • Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at approximately 4.45 percent annually, suggesting stable long term top line expectations.
  • Net Profit Margin: Essentially flat at around 6.25 percent, reflecting no meaningful shift in long run profitability assumptions.
  • Future P/E: Edged down marginally from about 10.80x to 10.79x, implying a slightly lower valuation multiple on expected earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.