Update shared on 27 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 7.82%Analysts have lowered their price target for Surgery Partners from approximately $27.91 to $25.73. They cite recent earnings misses, payer mix headwinds, and delayed acquisitions as primary factors for the revision.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research coverage of Surgery Partners reflects both cautious and optimistic analyst perspectives following the company's earnings performance and outlook adjustments.
Bullish Takeaways
- Some analysts emphasize a favorable backdrop for mergers and acquisitions, highlighting that the company’s deal pipeline remains active and supportive of long-term growth plans.
- Despite near-term pressure on volume and payer mix, bullish analysts maintain that the key drivers of future upside include upcoming asset divestitures and progress in de-leveraging the balance sheet.
- Long-term trends for Ambulatory Surgery Centers continue to be seen as positive, with the company expected to benefit from ongoing industry tailwinds.
- There is ongoing confidence among optimistic analysts that management’s focus on selective divestitures will improve leverage and free cash flow. This is seen as important for future value creation.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts point to continued pressure on employer-sponsored insurance coverage, noting that this trend could weigh on the company’s payer mix and earnings visibility.
- Downward revisions to earnings and fiscal year guidance have been driven by slowing procedure volumes and a more cautious outlook for acquisition timing.
- Reduced visibility around future earnings due to evolving payer mix and performance trends has led to lower price targets and increased caution regarding near-term valuation.
- Some believe that while the magnitude of the recent stock price decline may be overdone, it reflects appropriate concern over current operational headwinds and revised EBITDA guidance for 2025.
What's in the News
- Surgery Partners has issued new earnings guidance for the full year 2025, projecting revenue between $3.275 billion and $3.30 billion (Corporate Guidance).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased from $27.91 to $25.73, reflecting a more cautious market outlook.
- Discount Rate has edged down slightly from 8.42% to 8.33%. This signals a minor reduction in perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth Expectations have eased from 7.02% to 6.85% year-over-year, indicating slightly lower projected expansion.
- Net Profit Margin projection has declined from 3.12% to 3.00%, suggesting reduced anticipated profitability.
- Future P/E ratio estimate has moved marginally lower from 36.52x to 36.12x. This aligns with adjustments in earnings outlook.
Disclaimer
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