Despite strong quarterly outperformance, higher 2025 guidance, and increased buyout speculation, Hologic's consensus analyst price target was modestly reduced from $73.87 to $72.43 as fiscal 2025 estimates were recalibrated to reflect current demand trends and tariff expectations.
Analyst Commentary
- Strong revenue and EPS outperformance in the recent quarter, with management raising full-year 2025 guidance.
- Enhanced outlook supported by M&A contributions and favorable foreign exchange impacts.
- Increased investor interest driven by reports of a potential buyout.
- Fiscal 2025 estimates viewed as reasonable, with consensus now better aligned with current demand trends and expected tariff effects.
- Shares seen as undervalued, trading at a discount to historical averages and industry peers.
What's in the News
- Blackstone and TPG have renewed their interest in acquiring Hologic and have re-engaged with the company's board, currently conducting due diligence; Hologic shares surged 8% following the Bloomberg report, though no official comment has been made and discussions are ongoing without a deal yet finalized (Bloomberg, Key Developments).
- Blackstone and TPG's revived interest follows a previously rejected offer exceeding $16 billion earlier in May; Hologic had a market capitalization of roughly $14.7 billion just before the recent reports (Key Developments).
- Hologic continues to be viewed as an attractive acquisition target, particularly amidst recent performance challenges and its focus on women's health diagnostics, surgery, and imaging products (Key Developments).
- The company completed a sizeable share repurchase program, buying back approximately 8 million shares (3.5% of outstanding shares) for $563 million as part of a buyback plan announced in September 2024 (Key Developments).
- Hologic raised its full-year 2025 revenue and earnings guidance, now expecting revenue of $4.08–$4.09 billion and GAAP EPS of $2.56–$2.59; Q4 guidance is revenue of $1.03–$1.04 billion and GAAP EPS of $0.90–$0.93 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Hologic
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $73.87 to $72.43.
- The Future P/E for Hologic has fallen slightly from 19.47x to 19.07x.
- The Discount Rate for Hologic remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 7.77% to 7.74%.
Disclaimer
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