ESTA: Positive EBITDA And U S Expansion Will Support Balanced Outlook

Analysts have lifted their price target on Establishment Labs Holdings, increasing fair value estimates to about $74 from roughly $71, supported by stronger than expected Q3 results, the company’s first positive EBITDA, and raised 2025 revenue expectations.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research notes highlight a generally constructive stance on Establishment Labs Holdings, with multiple firms lifting price targets following the latest Q3 results and updated 2025 guidance.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts see the Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA beat as validation of the company’s ability to execute on growth plans while progressing toward sustainable profitability.
• The company’s first quarter of positive EBITDA is viewed as a key inflection point that supports higher valuation multiples and narrows the gap to more mature medtech peers.
• Upward revisions to 2025 revenue expectations, including expectations to exceed the mid point of prior guidance, reinforce confidence in the durability of demand and the scalability of the Motiva franchise.
• Expectations for at least a doubling of U.S. Motiva sales by 2026, driven by deeper penetration of existing accounts and new site additions, underpin long term growth assumptions and justify higher price targets.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts remain cautious on the broader medical technology sector into the Q3 earnings season, which could limit near term multiple expansion despite company specific momentum.
• There is lingering uncertainty around the outcome and timing of the Section 232 investigation into medical equipment and devices, which could introduce regulatory or trade related overhangs for valuation.
• Some observers maintain more neutral ratings, reflecting concerns that the recent rally already prices in a significant portion of the anticipated growth and execution upside.

What's in the News

• Raised 2025 revenue guidance and now expects more than USD 210 million, above the prior USD 208 million to USD 212 million range, signaling stronger growth confidence (company guidance)
• Published a 3-year, 100-patient prospective study of Mia Femtech in the Aesthetic Surgery Journal, showing a very low complication rate, a 1 percent reoperation rate, and high patient and surgeon satisfaction (Aesthetic Surgery Journal study)
• The Mia Femtech study reported no cases of capsular contracture Baker Grade III or IV, implant rupture, sensitivity loss, major incision complications, infection, seroma, rippling, hematoma, or BIA ALCL at 3 years, reinforcing the device’s safety profile (Aesthetic Surgery Journal study)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to approximately $74.22 from about $71.33, reflecting modest upside following the latest results and guidance.
• Discount Rate has decreased marginally to roughly 12.90 percent from about 12.96 percent, indicating a slightly lower perceived risk profile.
• Revenue Growth Forecast has increased slightly to around 27.99 percent from about 27.91 percent, incorporating a modestly stronger top line outlook.
• Net Profit Margin Assumption has edged down fractionally to about 9.89 percent from approximately 9.90 percent, suggesting a nearly unchanged long term profitability view.
• Future P/E Multiple has risen moderately to roughly 78.24x from about 75.39x, implying a somewhat higher valuation multiple on expected earnings.