Update shared on 15 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 14%Analysts have lowered their price targets for DexCom, reducing the fair value estimate from $98.40 to $84.96. This reflects a reaction to recent conservative guidance, weaker growth outlook, and updated margin expectations.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst updates on DexCom reflect a mix of cautious sentiment and optimism regarding the company's future performance. Perspectives are divided on the outlook for valuation, growth, and execution following guidance updates and recent earnings results.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts remain confident in DexCom's long-term growth, highlighting sustained expansion in customer reach and the potential for above-industry-average growth rates.
- There is positive sentiment around ongoing product innovation, particularly with recent advancements in continuous glucose monitoring technology and new sensor offerings.
- Analysts note that retention rates are holding steady and patient complaints regarding key products are declining, suggesting underlying business strength.
- Some see the recent selloff as an overreaction and believe current share levels offer an attractive entry point, especially with expectations for a favorable setup in 2026.
- Bearish analysts have revised price targets downward, citing concerns over more conservative forward-looking guidance and a weaker growth outlook for the end of the year.
- Updated margin expectations and indications of gross margin pressure are prompting caution regarding near-term profitability.
- The absence of record new patient quarters raises questions about growth momentum and whether quality or execution challenges are starting to have a greater impact.
- Some analysts are wary that recurring debate around the quality of newer devices could continue to weigh on perception and stock performance in the short term.
What's in the News
- DexCom shares dropped 2% to $68.93 following publication of a Hunterbrook Capital short report. (Periodicals)
- Hunterbrook Media reported three deaths associated with use of DexCom's G7 continuous glucose monitor, based on adverse event reports filed with the FDA. These reports have contributed to Hunterbrook Capital's decision to short DexCom stock. (Periodicals)
- DexCom, Inc. is facing a class action lawsuit alleging unauthorized design changes to its G6 and G7 devices and claims of misleading investors regarding the reliability and safety of those products. (Key Developments)
- The company announced completion of a $187.25 million share repurchase, buying back 2,404,499 shares and representing 0.61% of shares outstanding. (Key Developments)
- DexCom has raised earnings guidance for fiscal year 2025, now expecting $4.63 billion to $4.65 billion in revenue, representing approximately 15% growth. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: Decreased from $98.40 to $84.96, reflecting a significant downward adjustment.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 7.66% to 7.94%, suggesting higher perceived risk in valuation models.
- Revenue Growth Forecast: Lowered from 14.67% to 12.96%, indicating more cautious expectations for top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Increased from 21.46% to 22.52%, highlighting improved profitability projections despite lower growth.
- Future P/E Ratio: Declined from 34.93x to 28.28x, pointing to a less aggressive earnings valuation outlook.
Disclaimer
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