Update shared on09 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 1.45%Analysts modestly raised BrightSpring Health Services’ price target to $29.12, reflecting confidence in specialty pharmacy and generic growth catalysts outweighing home health reimbursement concerns.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite durable growth expected from Limited Distribution Drugs (LDDs) and generic conversions, which are anticipated to drive stronger adjusted EBITDA in the second half of 2025 and sustain growth into 2026.
- Continued specialty pharmacy segment expansion and the upcoming pharmaceutical patent cliff are perceived as catalysts, supporting revenue and margin expansion for BrightSpring’s specialty and generic offerings.
- Price targets reflect conviction that BrightSpring can maintain a premium EBITDA multiple (implied at 15x 2026E), given its leading position in both specialty pharmacy and home health markets.
- Bearish analysts are cautious due to proposed Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) rate cuts for Home Health in CY26 (a -6.4% proposal), which could present a 2.2% headwind to 2026 EBITDA if implemented as proposed.
- Some analysts note that there may be room for operational efficiencies and a less severe final CMS rate, which could partially mitigate the negative impact from reimbursement changes.
What's in the News
- Raised full-year 2025 earnings guidance, projecting net revenue of $12.2–$12.6 billion (21.1% to 25.1% growth).
- Reported Q2 impairment of long-lived assets totaling $608,000, up from $211,000 year-over-year.
- Completed a $304.5 million follow-on equity offering of 14 million common shares at $21.75 per share.
- Multiple firms, including Jefferies, KKR Capital Markets, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Guggenheim, UBS, BTIG, CJS Securities, Loop Capital Markets, Harris Nesbitt, Mizuho Securities, and Leerink Partners, added as Co-Lead Underwriters for the equity offering.
- Lock-up agreements restrict directors, executive officers, and selling stockholders from selling certain common stock for 60 days following the offering.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for BrightSpring Health Services
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $28.71 to $29.12.
- The Future P/E for BrightSpring Health Services remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 20.48x to 20.80x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for BrightSpring Health Services remained effectively unchanged, at 10.1% per annum.
Disclaimer
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