Update shared on 27 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 3.77%Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' analyst price target has increased slightly from $10.17 to $10.55. Analysts attribute the updated outlook to ongoing improvements in reimbursement rates, operational discipline, and strong quarterly results.
Analyst Commentary
Recent coverage of Aveanna Healthcare Holdings has highlighted a mix of positive outlooks alongside a few areas of caution regarding the company's performance and valuation. Analysts have updated their price targets in response to favorable quarterly results and noted improvements in operational efficiency and reimbursement trends.
Bullish Takeaways- Strong Q2 and Q3 results, supported by increased state reimbursement rates, have significantly boosted share performance.
- Expansion of relationships with preferred payers and disciplined cost control have contributed to reduced leverage and improved financial health.
- Projections for sustained EBITDA growth of over 10% in the long term are supported by ongoing payer conversions, operational discipline, and potential merger and acquisition activity.
- Recent movements in share ownership, such as the sale of a large private equity stake, are expected to alleviate liquidity overhang and improve trading flexibility.
- Future increases in Medicaid reimbursement rates may be more limited, which could cap one avenue of robust earnings growth in the future.
- Despite recent improvements, the company is still subject to risks related to execution, particularly around continued cost control and payer expansion.
- Questions remain about how sustainable recent growth trends are in the absence of additional external catalysts, such as further rate adjustments or major acquisitions.
What's in the News
- RBC Capital raised its price target for Aveanna to $10 from $8 after strong preliminary results for the third quarter. The firm also expects liquidity concerns to ease following a large private equity share sale (RBC Capital).
- Aveanna reported impairment charges of $418,000 for the third quarter, showing a significant decrease from $2.9 million in the previous year (Company Update).
- The company increased its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to above $2.375 billion, up from more than $2.3 billion, highlighting a positive outlook (Company Guidance).
- Aveanna plans to continue pursuing acquisitions in 2026 to further expand its Medicaid presence, supported by improved free cash flow and recent tuck-in transactions (Earnings Call).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $10.17 to $10.55 per share.
- Discount Rate has decreased marginally, moving from 7.29% to 7.16%.
- Revenue Growth is now projected at 7.81%, up from the previous estimate of 7.39%.
- Net Profit Margin has increased modestly from 6.77% to 6.90%.
- Future P/E ratio has edged up from 16.67x to 16.72x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.