Update shared on 12 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 11%Analysts have trimmed their price target for Evolution Petroleum from approximately 4.50 dollars to 4.00 dollars, reflecting expectations for weaker revenue growth that are only partially offset by improved profit margin forecasts and a lower implied future price-to-earnings multiple.
What's in the News
- Shareholders ratified the appointment of Baker Tilly US, LLP as Evolution Petroleum's independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026 (AGM client announcement).
- Unaudited fourth quarter 2025 production showed crude oil volumes rising to 211 MBBL from 190 MBBL year over year, while total production held nearly flat at 655 MBOE versus 656 MBOE, with average daily output at 7,198 BOEPD compared with 7,209 BOEPD (operating results announcement).
- For the full fiscal year 2025, total production increased to 2,582 MBOE from 2,485 MBOE, driven by higher crude oil, natural gas, and NGL volumes, with average daily production improving to 7,074 BOEPD from 6,790 BOEPD (operating results announcement).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target trimmed from 4.50 dollars to 4.00 dollars, indicating a modest downward revision in fair value expectations.
- Discount Rate reduced slightly from 7.05 percent to 6.96 percent, reflecting a marginally lower required return on equity.
- Revenue Growth outlook lowered significantly from approximately minus 1.17 percent to about minus 3.88 percent, pointing to weaker top line expectations.
- Net Profit Margin forecast increased substantially from about 2.27 percent to roughly 14.23 percent, suggesting a much stronger earnings efficiency profile.
- Future P/E multiple compressed sharply from around 105.6 times to about 15.5 times, indicating a markedly less aggressive valuation on forward earnings.
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