WMB: Future Data Center And LNG Projects Will Drive Balanced Risk Reward

Analysts have raised their price targets for Williams Companies, which has driven our fair value estimate higher to about $54.55 from roughly $49.47. They highlight accelerating long term EBITDA growth, incremental project contributions, and increasing confidence that the company is well positioned to benefit from growing global natural gas infrastructure demand.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research has generally trended more constructive on Williams, with several firms lifting price targets into the mid 60s to low 80s and maintaining positive ratings. These moves reflect growing conviction in the durability of long term EBITDA growth, the contribution of incremental projects, and Williams' leverage to rising global natural gas and LNG infrastructure demand.

One major bank lifted its price target into the low 80s and reiterated a favorable rating after investor meetings with senior management, citing an approaching inflection point in earnings power and the potential for a positive estimate revision cycle. Another large institution initiated coverage with an optimistic stance, arguing that current valuations do not fully capture structural power demand tailwinds and Williams' role as a high quality midstream operator positioned to benefit from expansion in natural gas and natural gas liquids infrastructure.

At the same time, there have been more measured moves within the peer group, with some price targets raised only modestly into the mid 60s while ratings remain neutral. These more cautious updates emphasize that while the base business is benefiting from incremental project contributions, investors are closely monitoring execution on upcoming catalysts, particularly around data center related opportunities and the pace of contract announcements ahead of key earnings events.

Overall, the Street views Williams as well positioned, but it is also signaling that the next leg of share price performance will depend on the company delivering against ambitious growth expectations, successfully commercializing its opportunity set, and maintaining capital discipline as it pursues large scale infrastructure projects.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts caution that after the recent rerating, Williams' valuation embeds a meaningful premium to historical averages, leaving less room for error if EBITDA growth or project returns fall short of expectations.
• Some note that neutral ratings, despite higher price targets, reflect execution risk around the timing and scale of data center and LNG linked projects, which could introduce volatility if contract signings or regulatory milestones are delayed.
• Bearish analysts also highlight that increasing capital commitments to new infrastructure, while supportive of growth, could pressure free cash flow and leverage metrics if volumes or tariffs underperform underwriting assumptions.
• There is concern that the current optimism around long term natural gas demand may prove overly generous if policy, technology, or renewable cost trends weaken the growth runway, which would challenge the multiple expansion now reflected in the shares.

What's in the News

• Secured key Clean Water Act Section 401 and 404 permits from New Jersey and New York regulators for the Northeast Supply Enhancement project, clearing a major regulatory hurdle for expanding natural gas capacity into New York City (Key Developments)
• NESE is expected to generate over $1 billion in investment, create thousands of construction jobs, and help lower emissions in New York City by displacing higher emitting fuel oil delivered by truck (Key Developments)
• Continued advancing the Constitution Pipeline project serving markets across the Northeast, withdrawing the current New York water permit application in order to submit additional regulatory filings to obtain construction and operating approvals (Key Developments)
• Reported that between July 1, 2025 and September 30, 2025, it repurchased no additional shares, while cumulatively completing the buyback of about 4.8 million shares for $139.07 million under its existing repurchase program (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has risen moderately, increasing from approximately $49.47 to about $54.55 per share.
• Discount Rate has ticked higher, moving from roughly 6.84 percent to about 6.96 percent, implying a slightly higher required return.
• Revenue Growth outlook has improved meaningfully, with the long term decline moderating from around minus 1.52 percent to about minus 0.58 percent.
• Net Profit Margin expectations have inched higher, rising from roughly 31.05 percent to about 32.34 percent.
• Future P/E multiple assumptions have edged lower, declining from about 22.52 times to roughly 22.23 times forward earnings.