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PR: Strong Production Momentum And Buybacks Will Drive Shares Higher

Persistent US Energy Demand Will Sustain Secular Momentum

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PR
AnalystHighTarget
Not Invested
Published 19 Apr 2025

Update shared on 14 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 1.18%
Previous
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AnalystHighTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
3.2%
7D
-1.2%

Analysts have nudged their price target on Permian Resources slightly higher, from approximately $22.00 to $22.26 per share, citing updated assumptions that include a lower discount rate and higher future valuation multiples, despite moderating growth and margin forecasts.

What's in the News

  • Reported strong third quarter 2025 operating results, with net total production rising to 37,741 MBoe from 31,932 MBoe a year earlier and average daily output increasing to 410,225 Boe/d from 347,091 Boe/d, driven by higher oil, gas and NGL volumes (company announcement of operating results).
  • For the first nine months of 2025, net total production climbed to 106,376 MBoe from 91,835 MBoe in the prior year period, with average daily production up to 389,653 Boe/d from 335,166 Boe/d, underscoring sustained volume growth (company announcement of operating results).
  • Raised full year 2025 guidance, increasing the mid point oil production target by 3.0 MBbls/d to 181.5 MBbls/d and total production target by 9.0 MBoe/d to 394.0 MBoe/d, citing continued strong well performance (corporate guidance update).
  • Continued to return capital via share repurchases, buying back 2,250,000 shares for $30.35 million in the third quarter of 2025 and completing 6,370,240 shares repurchased for $73.7 million under the existing authorization (buyback tranche update).
  • Completed a follow on equity offering of 46,112,899 Class A shares, raising approximately $623.9 million at $13.53 per share, while large blocks of Class A and Class C shares remain subject to a lockup through October 31, 2025 (follow on equity offering and lock up disclosures).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate increased slightly, moving from $22.00 to approximately $22.26 per share.
  • The discount rate decreased modestly, from about 7.43 percent to 6.96 percent, reflecting a lower assumed cost of capital.
  • The revenue growth outlook was reduced moderately, from roughly 11.70 percent to 9.79 percent.
  • The net profit margin assumption declined significantly, from about 42.0 percent to 30.1 percent.
  • The future P/E multiple expanded meaningfully, rising from approximately 7.1x to 11.8x projected earnings.

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Disclaimer

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