Update shared on18 Oct 2025
Fair value Increased 3.88%Analysts have raised their price target on PBF Energy by $1.00 to $26.75. They cite tighter global product markets and improved profit margin outlooks as key factors behind the adjustment.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research reports on PBF Energy reflect a mix of optimism and caution as analysts reassess the company's prospects amid evolving market dynamics. The adjustments to price targets and ratings highlight different expectations for valuation, sector performance, and potential risks.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts point to a resilient global products market, with continued tightness in supply and demand supporting higher refining margins well into 2026.
- Rising price targets from several analysts reflect improved forecasts and confidence in PBF Energy's profitability outlook, even in the face of ongoing market volatility.
- Positive earnings revisions are supported by stronger distillate demand and tightening supply, which provides a constructive backdrop for growth.
- Bullish perspectives indicate that higher-than-consensus estimates are possible and reflect optimism about future margin strength compared to earlier industry indicators.
- Bearish analysts caution that some of the recent price target increases are still viewed as disappointing relative to initial margin expectations within the sector.
- Concerns remain about the potential for a pullback in independent refiners after recent rallies. This raises questions about the sustainability of current valuations.
- Some perspectives highlight ongoing risks from supply and demand debates and suggest near-term volatility could pose challenges for execution and performance.
- At least one downgrade reflects a lower target price tied to reduced conviction about PBF Energy's ability to outperform in the current refining environment.
What's in the News
- PBF Energy announced the promotion of Joseph Marino to Chief Financial Officer, effective October 1, 2025. Current CFO, Karen B. Davis, will retire and rejoin the Board of Directors. (Key Developments)
- The company provided third quarter 2025 production guidance, expecting throughput of 320,000 to 340,000 barrels per day for the East Coast, 150,000 to 160,000 for Mid-continent, 175,000 to 185,000 for Gulf Coast, and 220,000 to 230,000 for West Coast operations. (Key Developments)
- PBF Energy completed its multi-year buyback program, repurchasing a total of 24,113,897 shares, representing 19.61% of shares for $1,017.67 million. No shares were repurchased in the most recent reported quarter. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen by $1.00 to $26.75, reflecting a more optimistic view of PBF Energy's valuation.
- Discount Rate has increased slightly from 8.10% to 8.18%, indicating a marginally higher perceived risk or cost of capital.
- Revenue Growth projection has fallen significantly from 5.30% to 3.13%, suggesting tempered expectations for top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin outlook has improved, rising from 0.85% to 1.11%, which signals expectations of better profitability moving forward.
- Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio has decreased from 12.67x to 10.73x, pointing to potentially more attractive valuation or higher anticipated earnings.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.