Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 3.41%Analysts have modestly raised PBF Energy's price target to $22.75, reflecting positive earnings revisions driven by ongoing distillate strength and tight supply/demand balances, though caution persists over the sector's rally and margin sustainability.
Analyst Commentary
- Positive earnings revisions expected for the back half of the year, driven by ongoing distillate strength and tightening global supply/demand balances into 2026 and 2027.
- The refining sector currently trades at a premium amid an above-average margin environment, although there are medium-term downside risks to crack spreads.
- Adjustments in price targets reflect updated models and sector coverage, particularly as analysts reassess the U.S. Integrated Oil, Refining, and Large Cap E&P sectors.
- Despite raised price targets, several bearish analysts continue to caution on the stock, maintaining Underperform or Underweight ratings amid expectations for a sector pullback after a recent rally.
- Elevated margin and sector fundamentals are supportive for the stock in the near term, but uncertainty remains over the sustainability of margin strength.
What's in the News
- Joseph Marino promoted to CFO effective October 1, 2025; outgoing CFO Karen B. Davis will retire and rejoin the Board of Directors.
- Company repurchased 0 shares from April 1 to June 30, 2025, completing the buyback of 24,113,897 shares (19.61%) for $1,017.67 million under the program announced in December 2022.
- Issued Q3 2025 production guidance: East Coast 320,000–340,000 bpd, Mid-continent 150,000–160,000 bpd, Gulf Coast 175,000–185,000 bpd, West Coast 220,000–230,000 bpd.
- Dropped from the Russell 2000 Defensive Index.
- Dropped from the Russell 2000 Value-Defensive Index.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for PBF Energy
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $22.00 to $22.75.
- The Discount Rate for PBF Energy has fallen slightly from 8.60% to 8.32%.
- The Future P/E for PBF Energy remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 46.65x to 47.46x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.