Update shared on04 Sep 2025
Northern Oil and Gas's fair value outlook was held steady at $33.70 as analysts weighed continued oil market volatility, high OPEC+ supply, and robust but supply-offset gas demand against incremental sector uncertainties.
Analyst Commentary
- Volatile oil pricing and increased geopolitical risk are raising uncertainty around sector returns.
- Elevated OPEC+ crude supplies and high domestic inventories continue to limit near-term upside.
- Strong secular natural gas demand driven by power generation and data center expansion is a positive long-term tailwind.
- Recent commitments of $90B toward power and data center infrastructure highlight growing gas demand but are offset by high supply.
- Ground-game acquisition activity increased in Q2, but a potential slowdown in operating partner activity could temper growth.
What's in the News
- The company completed repurchase of 2.75% of shares outstanding for $89.58 million under the ongoing buyback program.
- Reported a $115.6 million impairment of oil and gas assets for the second quarter.
- Second quarter production was 134,094 Boe/day, up 9% year-over-year, with strong well performance and growth in Uinta and Appalachian volumes.
- Revised 2025 production guidance to 130,000–133,000 Boe/day from previous guidance of 130,000–135,000 Boe/day.
- Dropped from multiple Russell growth and defensive indices, including the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Northern Oil and Gas
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, at $33.70.
- The Discount Rate for Northern Oil and Gas remained effectively unchanged, at 8.23%.
- The Future P/E for Northern Oil and Gas remained effectively unchanged, at 16.02x.
Disclaimer
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