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Infrastructure Projects In Northern Delaware And Permian Will Sustain Demand

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KNTK
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 28 Aug 2024

Update shared on19 Sep 2025

Fair value Increased 1.50%
Previous
AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
US$52.27
12.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
19 Sep
US$45.60
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1Y
0.8%
7D
4.7%

Analysts modestly raised Kinetik Holdings' price target to $52.27 as capital return takes precedence over growth, supported by positive sector M&A and resilient gas exposure, despite near-term earnings headwinds from weaker commodity prices and volume pressures.


Analyst Commentary


  • Shift in investor focus from growth to return of cash, with increased emphasis on reducing capex and enabling buybacks or higher dividends.
  • Impact of the Plains All American (PAA) acquisition of EPIC Crude stakes, seen as generally positive for Kinetik's outlook.
  • Weaker quarter-over-quarter commodity prices and continued volume curtailments expected to pressure near-term earnings.
  • Mixed Q2 midstream sector earnings and questions over whether basin-level production growth can offset capex increases to preserve cash flows.
  • Gas-levered midstream exposure provides some resilience despite slower basin development activity, due to favorable shale and hydrocarbon stream economics.

What's in the News


  • Kinetik Holdings' stake in the EPIC Crude pipeline is subject to a potential sale, as owners including Kinetik, Ares Management, and Diamondback Energy explore a transaction valuing the asset at approximately $3 billion (Reuters).
  • Kinetik Holdings was added to the S&P 1000 index (Key Developments).
  • The company was also added to the S&P 600 index (Key Developments).
  • Kinetik Holdings secured inclusion in the S&P 600 Energy (Sector) index (Key Developments).
  • The company completed a share buyback program, repurchasing 4,247,103 shares (7.06% of outstanding shares) for $178.31 million between April and August 2025 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes


Summary of Valuation Changes for Kinetik Holdings

  • The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $51.50 to $52.27.
  • The Future P/E for Kinetik Holdings has significantly fallen from 67.95x to 25.84x.
  • The Discount Rate for Kinetik Holdings remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 7.79% to 7.76%.

Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.