Update shared on 22 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 7.18%Analysts have lowered their price target for Kinetik Holdings from approximately $49.92 to $46.33 per share. They cite weaker Q3 results, revised management guidance, and ongoing macro headwinds related to commodity prices as the reasons for this adjustment.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research reflects a mixed outlook for Kinetik Holdings, with both positive and negative considerations shaping analyst perspectives following the company's latest quarterly results and updates to management guidance.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts continue to maintain positive ratings on Kinetik Holdings despite price target reductions. This suggests long-term confidence in the company's fundamentals.
- Expansion of natural gas takeaway capacity in the Permian Basin is viewed positively. Analysts expect that improved Waha pricing could help mitigate curtailments and enhance profitability over time.
- There is a belief that a shift in investor focus toward capital returns, such as buybacks or increased dividends, could benefit the company's valuation in a period of moderated capital expenditures.
- Recent industry transactions, such as deals involving EPIC Crude, are seen as generally constructive for Kinetik's market position and future growth prospects.
- Bearish analysts cite weaker-than-expected third quarter results and the subsequent downward revision of 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance as indicators of near-term operational challenges.
- Macro headwinds, particularly those related to volatile commodity prices, continue to pressure earnings and create uncertainty around forward estimates.
- Rising operating expenditures and lower-than-anticipated volume growth have led to downward revisions in earnings estimates. This has weighed on sentiment around execution and growth potential.
- Persistent commodity-driven curtailments are expected to remain a challenge until incremental infrastructure comes online and market conditions stabilize.
What's in the News
- Owners of the EPIC Crude pipeline, including Kinetik, Diamondback Energy, and Ares Management, are exploring a sale of the asset. It may be valued at around $3 billion including debt (Reuters).
- Kinetik Holdings repurchased 2,472,336 shares, or 3.89%, for $103.5 million between July and November 2025. This completed its buyback program with a total of 4,319,439 shares or 7.01% repurchased for $181.81 million.
- Kinetik Holdings was recently added to multiple S&P indices, including the S&P 1000, S&P Composite 1500, S&P 600, and S&P 600 Energy sector.
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: Lowered from $49.92 to $46.33 per share, reflecting lowered expectations for Kinetik Holdings' valuation.
- Discount Rate: Increased from 7.14% to 7.50%. This suggests analysts now see slightly increased risk or required return for the company.
- Revenue Growth: Projected to decrease from 23.08% to 19.35%. This indicates more conservative sales forecasts.
- Net Profit Margin: Improved from 6.72% to 8.12%. This reflects expectations for higher profitability despite lower revenue growth.
- Future P/E: Reduced from 19.59x to 18.67x. This suggests a modest decline in valuation multiples based on forward earnings.
Disclaimer
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