Update shared on20 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 4.33%Analysts have reduced their price target for Hess Midstream to $44.17, citing heightened uncertainty over future growth and capital returns due to Chevron’s rig reductions and less compelling standalone prospects post-acquisition.
Analyst Commentary
- Chevron’s decision to reduce Bakken rigs is expected to significantly lower Hess Midstream's near-term EBITDA growth and capital return prospects.
- The outlook for Hess Midstream as a standalone entity is less compelling following Chevron's acquisition of Hess Corp., leading to tempered growth expectations.
- Bullish analysts see the possibility of a company buyout as an ongoing potential catalyst, but not enough to outweigh current operational uncertainties.
- Hess Midstream’s future growth prospects now hinge more heavily on Chevron’s intentions for Bakken development, introducing increased uncertainty versus prior Hess Corp.-led plans.
- Bearish analysts view the stock’s risk/reward as more balanced amid the new ownership, favoring a more neutral stance until greater clarity on capital allocation and future strategy emerges.
What's in the News
- Chevron completed its $55 billion acquisition of Hess, leading to 575 job cuts in Houston effective September 26, 2025 (Reuters).
- Following the Hess-Chevron merger, Hess Midstream made significant executive changes: Jonathan C. Stein was appointed CEO (succeeding John B. Hess), and Michael J. Chadwick became CFO (Key Developments).
- Hess Midstream’s Board authorized a new share repurchase program in August 2025, including up to $70 million of Class A shares to be repurchased via an agreement with JPMorgan, in addition to the $10 million tranche completed in May 2025 (Key Developments).
- The company raised its quarterly dividend for Q2 2025 to $0.7370 per Class A share, a significant increase supported by recent repurchase activity and exceeding its targeted annual growth rate (Key Developments).
- Hess Midstream lowered Q3 and full-year 2025 earnings guidance to the lower end of prior ranges due to adverse weather and lower expected third-party gas volumes, also reducing its 2025 gas throughput outlook while reaffirming full-year income between $685–$735 million earlier in July (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Hess Midstream
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from $46.17 to $44.17.
- The Future P/E for Hess Midstream has significantly fallen from 19.18x to 11.44x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Hess Midstream has fallen slightly from 9.8% per annum to 9.5% per annum.
Disclaimer
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