Update shared on 20 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.65%Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on GeoPark to approximately $10.90 from about $11.08, citing slightly higher perceived risk despite marginally stronger revenue growth expectations and a steady valuation multiple outlook.
What's in the News
- Parex Resources proposed a cash acquisition of the remaining majority stake in GeoPark for $9 per share, but GeoPark’s board rejected the offer after several weeks without engagement, leaving the future of the bid uncertain (M&A Transaction Announcements).
- GeoPark completed the $115 million acquisition of two operated blocks in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta formation from Pluspetrol, securing all governmental approvals and bringing in provincial company GyP as a 5% working interest partner in one block (Business Expansions).
- The company issued multi year production guidance through 2028, targeting growth from around the high 20,000s boepd range in 2025 to the mid 40,000s boepd by 2028, which signals an aggressive investment led expansion plan (Corporate Guidance).
- Management announced a revised capital returns framework with a reduced quarterly dividend of $0.03 per share through late 2025, followed by a planned suspension starting with 3Q 2026 results. The company plans to prioritize funding its elevated investment program, with dividends to be reconsidered once free cash flow turns positive again (Dividend Decreases).
- Third quarter 2025 results showed average net production declining to 28,136 boepd from 33,215 boepd a year earlier, with lower oil output partially offset by higher gas production, underscoring operational headwinds ahead of the next growth phase (Announcement of Operating Results).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate edged down slightly to about $10.90 from roughly $11.08, reflecting a modestly more cautious outlook on intrinsic value.
- Discount Rate increased slightly to approximately 11.33 percent from about 10.98 percent, implying a higher required return and perceived risk profile.
- Revenue Growth rose marginally to around 16.58 percent from about 16.39 percent, indicating a slightly stronger top line outlook.
- Net Profit Margin slipped modestly to roughly 13.21 percent from about 13.46 percent, pointing to a slightly softer profitability expectation.
- Future P/E nudged up slightly to about 7.10x from roughly 7.06x, suggesting a nearly unchanged valuation multiple despite minor estimate adjustments.
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