EQT LNG And Datacenter Demand Will Support Stronger Long Term Gas Pricing

EQT's analyst-derived fair value estimate has edged up by about $1 to roughly $80 per share as analysts grow more optimistic that structurally stronger U.S. gas demand, supported by LNG exports and power-hungry datacenters, will sustain attractive long-term pricing, despite modest tweaks to near-term growth and margin assumptions.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research underscores a constructive backdrop for EQT, with bullish analysts emphasizing both structural demand tailwinds and company specific advantages. While individual price targets cluster in the high 60s to low 70s per share, the narrative increasingly centers on a multi year improvement in the risk reward profile for U.S. natural gas and for EQT in particular.

Bullish analysts argue that EQT is uniquely positioned to benefit from rising LNG exports and accelerating power demand from datacenters, which together could lift the long term floor for U.S. gas prices. This view supports a modest but steady drift higher in fair value estimates, even as near term commodity assumptions and growth forecasts are fine tuned.

In addition to the macro backdrop, research commentary highlights EQT's low cost structure, vertically integrated model, and investment grade balance sheet as key differentiators. These factors are described as enabling the company to convert higher gas prices into durable free cash flow while funding a pipeline of relatively low risk growth projects that can extend its inventory runway and support long term production visibility.

Bullish Takeaways

• Several bullish analysts have either initiated or reiterated positive recommendations on EQT, anchoring price targets in the high 60s to around $70 per share and reinforcing the view that current trading levels do not fully reflect the company's leverage to structurally higher gas prices.
• EQT's position as a low cost, vertically integrated natural gas producer with decades of core inventory is cited as a key driver of valuation upside, as it allows the company to sustain attractive margins and returns across a wider range of commodity price scenarios.
• Analysts highlight the potential for more than $700M in annual free cash flow at gas prices above $4. When combined with an investment grade balance sheet, this supports a thesis of robust capital returns, continued deleveraging, and self funded growth.
• Positive commentary around operational execution, Olympus integration, and a visible pipeline of low risk, high return projects suggests that EQT can continue to meet or beat expectations on volumes, EBITDA, and capital discipline. This underpins confidence in the stock's medium term re rating potential.

What's in the News

• Wells Fargo initiated coverage of EQT with an Overweight rating and a $68 price target, citing expectations that structurally higher U.S. gas demand from LNG exports and datacenters could lift the long term price floor and improve risk for gas focused equities (Periodicals, Wells Fargo).
• EQT updated buyback progress, noting that while no shares were repurchased in the most recent quarter, the company has completed repurchases of about 20.4 million shares, or 5.49% of shares outstanding, for $622.1 million under its existing authorization (Key Developments, Buyback Tranche Update).
• The company issued new sales guidance for 2025, projecting total sales volumes of 550 to 600 Bcfe in the fourth quarter, including strategic curtailments, and 2,325 to 2,375 Bcfe for the full year, with liquids volumes expected to grow alongside gas output (Key Developments, Corporate Guidance).
• EQT announced a five percent increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.165 per share, or $0.66 on an annualized basis, with the next payment scheduled for December 1, 2025, to shareholders of record on November 5, 2025 (Key Developments, Dividend Increases).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, increasing from approximately $79.06 to about $80.16 per share, reflecting marginally more constructive long term assumptions.
• The Discount Rate has fallen modestly, moving from about 7.23 percent to roughly 6.96 percent, implying a slightly lower perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth has been trimmed slightly, with long term assumptions easing from around 15.57 percent to about 14.73 percent, signaling a more measured outlook for top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin expectations have decreased moderately, from roughly 62.14 percent to about 59.49 percent, indicating a somewhat more conservative view on future profitability.
• The future P/E multiple has edged down marginally, slipping from about 10.20x to approximately 10.07x, suggesting a slightly less aggressive valuation on forward earnings.