EQT: U.S. Gas Market Shifts and LNG Demand Will Shape Outlook

EQT's analyst price target has increased modestly by $0.30 to $63.70. This reflects analysts' continued positive outlook on the company's fundamentals and its ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the natural gas market.

Analyst Commentary

Recent updates from street research on EQT reflect a divided, but overall constructive view on the company's prospects, driven by shifting market dynamics and company-specific execution. Analysts have weighed both the opportunities and challenges that could impact EQT's forward valuation and operational results.

• Bullish analysts are raising price targets, citing structural changes in the U.S. natural gas market that could provide long-term price support and reduce volatility. This may contribute to higher equity valuations.
• EQT's position as a vertically integrated, low-cost producer with significant core inventory is seen to underpin sustainable free cash flow generation, especially if gas prices recover to stronger levels.
• The company's established infrastructure and investment-grade profile provide a platform to capture datacenter and LNG export-driven demand growth, leading to potential upside as those markets expand.
• Strategic project execution, particularly through a low-risk, high-return pipeline, along with the ability to forge supply agreements with high-demand end users, is expected to drive incremental growth and cash flow expansion over the coming years.

• Bearish analysts are cautious about persistent oversupply in the gas market and muted pricing, which could delay a meaningful rebound in fundamentals through 2026 and constrain sector multiples.
• Existing concerns about companies not sufficiently curtailing supply growth, despite lessons from previous cycles, could weigh on near-term performance and sentiment.
• Some price target reductions reflect downward revisions to near-term cash flow and EBITDA estimates based on updated market scenarios, as well as caution surrounding ongoing capital allocation and integration of recent acquisitions.
• There is uncertainty regarding the timeline for achieving debt targets and delivering on ambitious production ramp plans, which introduces some execution risk to the outlook.

What's in the News

• Wells Fargo initiated coverage on EQT Corporation with an Overweight rating and set a price target of $68. The firm cited anticipated structural shifts in the U.S. gas market and increased demand from LNG exports and datacenter growth (Wells Fargo).
• EQT is in discussions with NextDecade regarding the potential supply and purchasing of liquefied natural gas from the Rio Grande LNG export terminal in Texas (Bloomberg).
• EQT secured a 20-year agreement with Sempra Infrastructure to purchase 2 million tonnes per annum of LNG from the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project in Texas. This agreement supports EQT's expansion in the LNG export market (Company Announcement).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly to $63.70 from $63.41, reflecting minor positive sentiment in market expectations.
• Discount Rate has fallen moderately to 6.96% from 7.05%, indicating analysts are applying a lower risk premium to EQT's projected cash flows.
• Revenue Growth projection remains essentially unchanged at 10.71%.
• Net Profit Margin is almost flat, nudging down fractionally to 33.52% from 33.53% previously.
• Future P/E ratio has increased slightly to 15.85x from 15.82x, suggesting a marginally higher multiple applied to forward earnings.