Update shared on04 Oct 2025
Fair value Increased 4.83%Analysts have raised their average price target for HF Sinclair from $53.71 to $56.31. This change reflects updated expectations for stronger profit margins and continued robust refining economics, despite some ongoing headwinds in renewables.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research highlights a variety of perspectives on HF Sinclair's outlook, with notable adjustments in price targets and ratings. Analysts are weighing the company's execution, industry positioning, and external factors impacting earnings potential.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts have continued to raise price targets, citing stronger-than-expected refining margins and robust economics across most business segments.
- Solid Q2 results, with margin capture outperforming expectations, have set a positive stage for the remainder of the year.
- Some have increased forward earnings estimates to reflect the company's improving operating leverage, particularly in the Mid-Continent region and lubricants segment.
- Valuation multiples have also been revised upward, reflecting a positive re-rating among peer refiners as the group continues to outperform the broader energy sector.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts have noted that following strong year-to-date performance, HF Sinclair shares may now be trading above their fair, mid-cycle value.
- Some express concerns about the impact of low subsidy prices in renewables, which continue to present a headwind for future earnings growth.
- Seasonal factors and narrower crude spreads are expected to limit upside in margin capture going forward.
- Earnings momentum, while solid, is described as less compelling compared to prior periods, prompting more cautious ratings and outlooks from some research groups.
What's in the News
- HF Sinclair completed the repurchase of 5,343,160 shares, representing 2.79% of outstanding shares, for a total of $251.46 million as part of its ongoing buyback program announced May 8, 2024. (Key Developments)
- Between April 1, 2025 and June 30, 2025, the company repurchased 1,329,725 shares, representing 0.71% for $50 million, as part of the same buyback initiative. (Key Developments)
- HF Sinclair has been contacted by California government officials regarding a potential acquisition of Valero's Benicia refinery, as the state attempts to maintain fuel supplies and curb gasoline price increases following planned refinery closures. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $53.71 to $56.31, reflecting updated market expectations.
- Discount Rate has fallen modestly from 7.35% to 7.17%, signaling a marginal reduction in perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth projection decreased from 1.57% to 1.49% annually, which indicates a slightly more conservative sales outlook.
- Net Profit Margin estimate has increased from 3.37% to 3.46%, suggesting expectations for modestly stronger profitability.
- Future P/E ratio increased from 12.84x to 13.05x, reflecting a minor upward revision in valuation multiples.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.